If you put flowers in your hair today thinking all is good in the world again, they most likely wilted by the end of the day. Yes, the Dow closed over 14,000 but the indexes failed to hold Wednesday highs and had a fairly impressive selloff at the end of the day. With Capitol Hill antics abound and the end of the week upon us, plus, since the market did not penetrate Monday's highs, I recommend taking it easy to see whether this was the second attempt and failure of the highs for real, or just a digestion day amidst a volatile week.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the fast moving average but failed to clear Monday's highs. Under today's lows suspect another test of 150 could be in the cards. Cancel that if clears 152.86 Subs: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) Failed to close above the fast moving average. Still showing a top in place which means unless we get through it, see a test of the 50 DMA next up Subs: Watch TWM again tomorrow in case-21.60 is pivotal
Dow (DIA) Another possible slingshot high. Watch the fast moving average
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Confirmed the bullish phase, but closed red which means that could be ephemeral unless Monday's highs clear
GLD So, did you short under 154 after Wednesday's inside day? Sometimes it's just that easy. Especially when it is in the direction of the phase. Subs: 152 now some support
XLF (Financials) Closed under the fast moving average. 17.19 the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Overall still sideways for 2013 Subs: Interesting test and failure of the top of the trading range-but an outperformer nonetheless
SMH (Semiconductors): Monday and Thursday highs now looking a bit double toppy unless clears.
XRT (Retail) Monday high had to clear and it did not-so it still has to
IYT (Transportation) Tested and retreated from the highs-interesting as this is the one to watch if market improves
IYR (Real Estate) 68.88 recent highs to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) After 2 Inside days, it failed the previous day low and closed weak.
OIH (Oil Services) Monday high also key and it could not clear Subs: Could not close above the 80 monthly moving average so now we wait for a new setup.
XLE (Energy) A doji month. Have to think the uncertainty reflects the whole overall market uncertainty
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Could not clear the 50 DMA Subs: Through 66.05 on a confirmed Opening range setup with good risk and I will look to get long yet again
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Possible slingshot high
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: I like the chart but it does have some overhead so want to see some digestion before we jump and today, it had a doji so patience is good for now
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: I would look for a rollover if breaks S1
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.20 is support at the 200 DMA and 22.65 overhead resistance
Bye for Now!
