New Trade Alert
Trade: XOP Buy 58.20 limit order
Instrument Name: S&P Oil and Gas Exploration ETF
Position: Long
Stop: 56.94
Target: 59.70 take partial profit
Trade Description: After testing the 50 DMA last Thursday, looks like a hammer candle bottom in place. Phases and Forecasts 2013 long pick
********************************************
Analysis for Monday, 2/25/13
From last Thursday's comments: "Equally prepare for a run back to 14,000 or another round of selling ahead of the weekend. A correction in a bull phase is that unpredictable." And so you have it. The Dow went out at 14,000. The market survived a stronger US dollar and evasive comments from the FED, although the writing does appear to be on the brick wall that low rates are unsustainable. This week begins with overbought conditions alleviated, nasty red candles at last week's high, but good (low volume) moves back over the fast moving averages. NASDAQ returned to its unconfirmed bull phase and many sectors shrugged off the correction handily.
Subs: Subscribers
S&P 500 (SPY) 151.90 next hurdle which if clears, will make the brick wall highs so last week! Subs: Classic opening range reversal after gap higher over R1-a chart formation to be studied. Pivots now positive
Russell 2000 (IWM) 91.20 overhead resistance to clear and like the other indexes, the gap low from Friday a critical point to hold Subs: Pivots Positive
Dow (DIA) Cleared the fast moving average. We can go back to looking at 140.36. Subs: Classic opening range reversal after gap higher over R1-a chart formation to be studied.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Technical signals work. Wrote last Thursday: "66.60 a pivotal area." Friday low 66.59. Provided Friday lows hold, back in bullish phase with overhead resistance at the fast moving average.
GLD Death cross with 2 inside days. Subs: Over 153 looks good to 156.70. Under 151.90 could see 150.00
XLF (Financials) 17.50 turned out the nice round number for support. Subs: 17.75 next hurdle then back to 19.95 target
IBB (Biotechnology) Great follow through after test of the 50 DMA. Now, a hold of 145.70 would be strong
SMH (Semiconductors): A move over 35.36 would be good, but ultimately has to clear 36.17
XRT (Retail) 67.75 is important resistance to clear. Weakest performing sector on Friday.
IYT (Transportation) Firmed Friday and still a good looking sector. However, does need to clear 107.16 Subs: That is the slingshot high for now
IYR (Real Estate) Bull phase, but wouldn't be surprised to see some more work at these levels before next move is determined
OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Will stay aside until we can see whether this holds or fails the 80 monthly moving average by February's end
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The last 14 trading days have all been within the range of the big trading range made on February 1st. Subs: Inside day. R1 and Friday's high line up
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: Long Friday on opening range reversal and looking to add
XHB (Homebuilders) The thing about weak warning phases is that they easily go back to bullish phases as did this group
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed phase change to accumulation Subs: Last week I talked about a strong US dollar and what it can do for the US Economy-it appears the old relationship between a rising dollar and falling stock market has shifted. Look for opportunities in sectors that support infrastructure and growth potential in the US
Bye for Now!
