Open Trade Update
Trade: XLF
Instrument Name: S&P Financial Spdr Fund
Existing Position: 17.96 Long
New Stop: 17.69 (Because that gives it enough room for a correction without it looking like a failure.
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so) Note: Those of you familiar with my miniswing rules, 18.37 is 1.5 ATRs from our entry.
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Analysis for Monday, 3/11/13
At least the run at the end of last week did not look like a blow off rally! In fact, it was surprisingly orderly. The jobs report was icing on the cake, but more importantly, what does the strong dollar, rise in rates, excellent group performance in areas related to US infrastructure add up to? It does seem like holding equities for a while longer or at least until the market internals reverse, makes a lot of sense. And amazingly, unlike other bull markets we have seen, there are still many equities that are just now coming out of 5-6 year lows, forming bases and offering excellent low risks.
S&P 500 (SPY) 2007 peak high 157.52 with 154.00 now good point to hold Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Uncharted territory now.
Dow (DIA) Of course this is looking overbought but somehow, not done yet.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Perhaps the best opportunity or a major reason to worry as it has not pulled its weight? Regardless, a bull phase and we hope the former.
GLD Continues to hold the low from 2/20 with what could be a U-turn pattern if takes out Friday high.
XLF (Financials) Looking parabolic. Subs: 18.37 is 1.5 ATRs from entry if want to lighten there on a hybrid trade
IBB (Biotechnology) Kind of unbelievable really.
SMH (Semiconductors): Subs: Now 2 days under pivots and real close to 35.20 the 10 DMA which is the new risk. Will watch for a low risk entry against that support
XRT (Retail) Pushed through the wall and not overbought at all
IYT (Transportation) Through 110, who can argue? Subs: FDX set up very similarly.
IYR (Real Estate) 3 day correction or early warning sign? Subs: Held the 10 DMA and still big eyes here for a rollover if the market corrects
USO (US Oil Fund) Looking like a near-term bottom has formed. Subs: If 32.96 holds, then would look at the move to the 200 DMA and beyond
OIH (Oil Services) Started to pull out of limbo if Friday low holds Subs: We are back to watching the 80 monthly moving average
XLE (Energy) Cleared recent resistance but still has the top in place form early February.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Hello! What a parabolic move looks like.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Into some resistance at the weekly Bollinger Band but not overbought so a correction to 59.00 would be good.
XHB (Homebuilders) After a 2 day correction, ends the week with a doji day. Eyes here if market has a correction for a possible short
UUP (Dollar Bull) Right up to the 200 weekly moving average and on cue. And not overbought
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: As long as this holds Friday's low, not too worried about Italy's downgrade-that is not news anymore.
Bye for Now!
