Ok, so make that a line from Mamas and the Papas: "Monday, Monday; Can't Trust That Day!" The Dow is back over 14,000 and even Ben Bernanke admits that higher rates is GOOD for the US economy-something this armchair economist has been writing about for a long time! But, before we put flowers in our hair, let's think about a couple of technical factors in play. The good news; the Dow and mainly due to IBM, closed on new highs eliminating the brick wall candle. S&P 500, NASDAQ, and most importantly, Russell 2000 have not gotten beyond Monday's nasty candle and of those 3, only SPY crossed back over the fast moving average. Finally, TBTs-good run for the money today, but still in a warning phase as the 50 DMA remained elusive. However, in the mirror image- TLTs, bear phase is intact. Mixed, fun and reasons to show up again Thursday!
S&P 500 (SPY) Crossed the fast moving average at 151.44 which should now hold although ultimate support at 150.30. Resistance Monday high 152.86 Subs: Pivots positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) 89.75 area support. 90.90 resistance to clear Subs: It seems really the one to watch for next move-failure or back over the 10 DMA
Dow (DIA) After the inside day yesterday, this was the place to be. New multi-year high close.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Back to unconfirmed bullish phase. Now, has to clear the fast moving average and hold the 50 DMA
GLD 154 support and now an inside day Subs: Will look to short under S1
XLF (Financials) Got over 17.50 which now needs to hold and the fast moving average has to clear
IBB (Biotechnology) Overall still sideways for 2013 but a very clear range has emerged to follow up or down. Subs: 148-143.50 is the range
SMH (Semiconductors): 35.40 Monday high to clear Subs: 34.69 or S1 should really hold if today was real
XRT (Retail) Monday high has to clear here as well
IYT (Transportation) Wow. The run happened so fast early on today, I just watched awestruck. Subs: 107.16 point to clear
IYR (Real Estate) 68.88 recent highs to clear
USO (US Oil Fund) 2 Inside days. That to me is a follow the range break candidate Subs: With positive pivots and the 200 DMA right here, would follow up if risk is in line
OIH (Oil Services) Monday high also key Subs: It's all about the 80 monthly moving average as tomorrow is the last day of February
XLE (Energy) Would be real interesting if this turns out to be a doji month.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Kissed the 50 DMA Subs: Through 66.00 on a confirmed Opening range setup with good risk and I will look to get long
DVY (Select Dividend Index) Another Inside day and clue to follow the range break early on
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Subs: I like the chart but it does have some overhead so want to see some digestion before we jump
XHB (Homebuilders) Subs: Nice move but still a place I would look for a rollover if breaks S1
UUP (Dollar Bull) 22.20 is support at the 200 DMA.
Bye for Now!
