Open Trade Updates
Trade: Note: Cancel buy stop in HLX for now
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Existing Position: XLF 17.96 Long
New Stop: 17.89
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so) Note: Some of you might have taken some profit at 18.37 or 1.5 ATRs from our original entry. I change the stops as I see how the market is reacting. Mainly, I am trying to avoid your getting stopped out only to see it reverse while at the same time, protecting you from any key reversals to the downside.
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Existing Position: SMH 35.80 Long Stopped out 35.09
Trade Description: With a confirmed island top in the S&P 500, rather err on the side of caution with a tight stop. I put out that recommendation because had the market continued, this group has huge potential. This service began as the bull market was already indicating overbought. We may have to wait for the market to show some legs before recommending any new longs.
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MMM Analysis for Tuesday 3/19/2013
As I did my research on stock setups, it seems that the move to the downside in the current bull phase, as long it holds, has more correcting to do. The island top confirmed in S&P 500. The last time that happened was on July 7, 2011. SPY broke the 10 DMA and could not hold above Friday's low. Therefore, unless we see the SPY clear today's high and keep going, the trip to the 50 DMA would keep the phase intact, but do more damage while providing the patient with a good low risk buy opportunity.
S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: Unless this clears the 10 DMA, respecting that island top
Russell 2000 (IWM) Better looking since it held the fast moving average. Over today's high would be positive, but under the moving average, would really not want to be holding too much on the long side Subs: R1 and today's high line up. S1 and today's low also line up
Dow (DIA) Although looking better than most, it seems more likely to see 141.50 before it sees new highs
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Closed above 68.00 mainly due to AAPL's rally. As the one index closest to the 50 DMA, 67.50, ironically, may be the one to go to first if can clear today's high
ETFs:
GLD 156 is good resistance and now, under 153.50 is the place to look for a new short Subs: White cap trade if breaks S1 using today's high as a risk for short
XLF (Financials) Hanging onto the fast moving average, but looks like for dear and vulnerable life.Subs: Got out of the long today since the market is heavy and this barely held the 10 DMA. However, a move down to 17.84 would be where I would look to reenter.
IBB (Biotechnology) Could drop to 148 and still hold phase. Right here, looking heavy with market.
SMH (Semiconductors): 34.70 is the next support level. Subs: Possible we can see this break the 50 DMA yet hold around 34.50. Aside for now
XRT (Retail) Best looking one besides transportation. Question is can it hold if the market continues south. Subs: 69.00 is major support
IYT (Transportation) Would feel a lot better if this can move back to108 then hold there for a new and less riskier buy opportunity. Subs: Cashed out today with a small profit on the balance
IYR (Real Estate) Possible top on 03/06.
USO (US Oil Fund) Range expansion day and holding the 200 DMA. Subs: Staying away now since has a gap overhead it hasn't filled and is a bit volatile
OIH (Oil Services) If holds the 50 DMA could still be an interesting basing setup Subs: 2 weeks left to see if this can close over the 80 monthly moving average 43.76.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Landed on the 50 DMA and needs to hold here
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) As one of my favorite sectors this year, now stalled at the top of a trendline going back to 2008.
XHB (Homebuilders) Still has to clear 30.00
UUP (Dollar Bull) We are back to watching this clear the 200 weekly moving average.
Bye for Now!
