Open Trade Update
Trade: XLF
Instrument Name: S&P Financial Spdr Fund
Existing Position: 17.96 Long
New Stop: 17.49
First Target: 18.75 (take off 1/3 or so)
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Analysis for Wednesday, 3/6/13
Dow closes in triple digits and on new highs! So, if we piece it all together: the bull phase, the correction that maintained the phase, the first to negate bearish candles near the highs, the strength of many of the industry groups, the resiliency after the one day disaster over a week ago-should we be surprised? And although the volume is good-better than it has been for most rallies, the top seekers still have a couple of valid concerns. The Russell 2000 or small caps failed to take out 92.68 the high from 2/20. That would be the main concern until it does take that high out. Of course, there are always the overbought indicators, but not as worried with that since this rally has been met with anemic buying until today so the RSIs could ramp up from here no problem.
S&P 500 (SPY) 2007 peak high 157.52 with 153.28 the 2013 high until today to hold. Subs: Pivots Positive in all indexes and will watch now for S1 and today's gap to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) Obviously big eyes here
Dow (DIA) Watch today's gap to hold for starters
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Made new 2013 highs with 70 area the next overhead resistance if AAPL holds along with today's lows
GLD Subs: If cant clear today's high, look for a short under 152
XLF (Financials) New 2013 high close. Like to see today's gap hold and this make that trip to 19.75
IBB (Biotechnology) The surprise for me this year-now overbought
SMH (Semiconductors): Now it's all about 36.00 Subs: If took the swing trade, 35.00 good area to hold.
XRT (Retail) 68.96 the highs to clear
IYT (Transportation) Was looking for 110 got to 109.93..hmmmmmm
IYR (Real Estate) New multi-year high and the other clue early this week this move today was coming
USO (US Oil Fund) Subs: 2 day brick wall pattern in place now if holds conservatively today's lows. Gap to fill to 32.96 then could see return to the 200 DMA
OIH (Oil Services) Back into an unconfirmed bullish phase with still somewhat cloudy chart
XLE (Energy) Subs: 78.72 is the point to clear then could go the way of the other groups that have rallied big
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The 50 day moving average is right there yet somehow still elusive. Like to see that clear
XHB (Homebuilders) Hasn't taken out the 2013 highs
UUP (Dollar Bull) Worked off some overbought conditions
JJC (iPath DJ AIG Copper) Subs: 2 day brick wall bottom pattern in a distribution phase. If holds today's low and fills gap to 44.42 could see 46.40 area
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Bought on an opening range reversal. Has to clear the 10 DMA now or will be wary under today's lows.
Bye for Now!
