***Note: CCJ: Reports Before open 4/28-Portfolio will exit Thursday before close
EXC: Reports May 10
The 5 Picks featured for this week:
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Existing Position: Long EXC at 35.81 ATR: .56
Name of Instrument: Exelon Corp.
Current Price: 34.90
Reason for Trade: We made money in this stock in 2016. It made my list of top picks for 2017 because it is clearing the 80-month moving average and reversing a downtrend since 2009. Although utilities are typically interest rate sensitive, this acted in the reverse. When rates were zero, EXC was struggling. The potential is great. In fact, I will consider not exiting ahead of earnings. Our sell stop is under all the work since late December. The nearly 4-month consolidation period is a plus.
Sell Stop: 34.44
First Profit Target: Sell ½ 38.44 (Market if Touched)
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Existing Position: Long EWZ at 37.90 ATR: .90
Name of Instrument: iShs MSCI Brazil Capped ETF
Current Price: 36.88
Reason For Trade: After making a new multi-year high in February, EWZ had a good correction holding above the 100-DMA, 200-WMA and 23-month MA. Our risk is under the 6-month January calendar range hi and 100-DMA. If good, the recent correction should hold, which also gives us room to lower the risk should it break on a weekly basis under 36.50. A move back over 38.50 should get it to 40.00. That will allow us to go to a no loss stop with patience should this continue its upward trend. Ultimate resistance is way overhead at 47.00
Sell Stop: 35.79
First Target: Sell ½ at 42.24 (Market if touched)
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Existing Position: Long CCJ 11.12 ATR: .43
Name of Instrument: Cameco Corp.
Current Price: 10.90
Reason for Trade: Well above the January 6-month Calendar Range low, and holding the February one-month calendar range low, our risk is to under the 100 and 200 daily moving averages and the 50-week moving average. Therefore, we chose to buy against the weekly phase rather than the daily phase. CCJ is the 2nd largest uranium producer. The potential to match and take out the recent highs makes the risk/reward sound. It reported on February 9th. It was a toss-up between CCJ and URA-CCJ has way more volume and offered the better risk. We shall see.
Sell Stop to: 10.49
First Target to sell ½ 13.34
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Existing Position: IFN: Long 1/3 at 21.63 ATR: .43
Name of Instrument: India Fd
Current Price: 26.39
Reason For Trade: Before 2016 ended, this had a reversal pattern off the lows. Then, since 2017 it has been consolidating. There was a gap to fill and the November low to retake before we would enter. Once IFN gapped higher and cleared those levels, our risk (3 ATRs) is normal for a thin ETF. This is also listed as a pick for 2017. I like ETFs since we do not have to think about earnings. Now, if this is good longer term, a move over the 80-month MA or around 23.00 could be explosive. Our target is 2:1 and above all the MAs. Therefore, we will go to a no loss stop once we get around 2 ATRs (22.43 area) so we can sit.
TRAILING Stop: 25.47
Sold ½ existing at 25.85
Sold 1/3 position at 22.87
Sold 1/3 position at 23.18
