***Note: IFN: cancel target at 24.23 and raise to 25.97. Raise Trailing stop to 22.57
***Lower trailing stop in KBH: 17.34
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New Position: Long KORS at 36.80 ATR .74
Name of Instrument: Michael Kors Hldg, LTD
Current Price: 36.92
Reason For Trade: One of my favorite setups is a buy against a historical low after a confirmed reversal pattern. The 2016 low was 34.83 and the 2017 low 34.92. Our entry was based on a 5-minute opening range breakout over the 10 daily moving average. We can become more defensive should it break 36.00. Otherwise, the plan is to sit with this against these lows. If KORS clears 40.00 good reason to believe it can go to 45.00 level or higher. The recent slump is because of holiday sales. This position is what is called “value investing.” The key is to have a controlled risk and if right, have windfall profits.
Sell Stop: 34.74
First Profit Target: Sell ½ at 40.74 (Market if Touched)
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Existing Position: Long CCJ 11.12 ATR: .43
Name of Instrument: Cameco Corp.
Current Price: 11.01
Reason for Trade: Well above the January 6-month Calendar Range low, and holding the February one-month calendar range low, our risk is to under the 100 and 200 daily moving averages and the 50-week moving average. Therefore, we chose to buy against the weekly phase rather than the daily phase. CCJ is the 2nd largest uranium producer. The potential to match and take out the recent highs makes the risk/reward sound. It reported on February 9th. It was a toss-up between CCJ and URA-CCJ has way more volume and offered the better risk. We shall see.
Sell Stop: 9.97
First Target to sell ½ 13.34
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Existing Position: KBH: Long ½ at 16.58 average price ATR: .59 (Note-1/2 at 16.55 ½ at 16.61)
Name of Instrument: KB Home
Current Price: 18.58
Reason for Trade: Listed as a 2017 pick since it cleared the 80-month moving average in 2016. Although we have a wide stop, we can easily reduce risk should this fail to hold and close out a week over 16.00, the 200-week moving average. If it holds, the first profit target goes back to prices not seen since 2014. In 2005, this stock traded as high as 85.00. KBH reported on January 11th so we also have time to see how the trade plays out.
***LOWERED Trailing Stop: 17.34
First Profit Target: Sold ½ the Position at 18.17
***Second Profit target: Sell ½ at 19.94 (Market if Touched)
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Existing Position: IFN: Long 1/3 at 21.63 ATR: .43
Name of Instrument: India Fd
Current Price: 24.21
Reason For Trade: Before 2016 ended, this had a reversal pattern off the lows. Then, since 2017 it has been consolidating. There was a gap to fill and the November low to retake before we would enter. Once IFN gapped higher and cleared those levels, our risk (3 ATRs) is normal for a thin ETF. This is also listed as a pick for 2017. I like ETFs since we do not have to think about earnings. Now, if this is good longer term, a move over the 80-month MA or around 23.00 could be explosive. Our target is 2:1 and above all the MAs. Therefore, we will go to a no loss stop once we get around 2 ATRs (22.43 area) so we can sit.
***RAISED TRAILING Stop: 22.57
Sold 1/3 position at 22.87
Sold 1/3 position at 23.18
***RAISED Third Target: Sell ½ the position at 25.97 (Market if Touched)
