****NOTE: XLE: Since not stopped out on the end of day stop at 66.90 go back to original stop 66.39 as we head into tomorrow. Expect adjustments
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New Position: XLE: Long 1/2 Position 67.75 ATR: 1.53
Name of Instrument: S&P Sel Energy Spdr Fd
Current Price: 67.23
Sell Stop: 66.39
Reason For Trade: Based on the Recovery Phase this is currently in, and the consolidation over the last two and half weeks, we bought a half position only after the opening range reversal on day of entry. The plan, if not stopped out, is to add the other half over 69.67, recent highs and the 100 DMA. If that happens, we can see a move up to the 200 DMA currently at 74.00 and beyond. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are the 2 heaviest weighted stocks in XLE. Both are already over the 100 DMA already and in Recovery Phases. Interesting to note: One year ago October 21, 2014 is when XLE went into a death cross. One year later, the potential for a bottom is at least worth the shot.
First Target: TBD depending upon if we add at higher levels
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Existing Position: Long 1/3 position SGG: 27.32 ATR: .87
Name of Instrument: iPath Bloomberg Sugar TR ETN
Current Price: 32.21
***Raised:Trailing Stop: 29.89
Reason For Trade: Essentially in a downtrend since mid-2011, I have been hawking for a bottom for some time. Over 29.05 on a weekly closing basis, would be a great confirmation but for now, after a confirmed bottom formation on August 24th, we bought on the basis of a phase change to recovery. Our risk is not quite to the low of that bottom, rather under just under the high of that day since that would suggest the bottom will not hold.
***First Target: Sold 1/3 30.49.
***REACHED Second Target sold 1/3 of the original position size: 31.62
Third Target to sell ½ of existing position: 34.47
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Existing Position: GDX: Long 1/3 Position at 14.05 ATR .58
Name of Instrument: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
Current Price: 15.86
***Raised: Trailing Stop: 15.14
Reason For Trade: Not traded over the 50 DMA since briefly in May 2015, the bigger downtrend began in September 2014 and except for a few bounces, has remained essentially in a bearish phase ever since. With 13.00 a good risk point as a potential bottom, with the move back over the 50 DMA, risk/reward is in line for a potential move up near 16.00, with the 200 DMA at 18.00. With an average daily volume of nearly 65 million, unlike our sugar trade, this is highly speculated. If commodities are bottoming out, then miners could be as well. Some names, like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) are leading GDX.
***REACHED! First Target: 15.72 for 1/3
***REACHED! Second Target: Sold 1/3 16.94
3rd Profit Target for ½ of remaining position: 19.17
