**NOTE: Go ahead and cancel the raised stops DBA: to 19.67 DBC: to 12.27 RSX: to 13.70 and go back to the original stops.
However, do not be surprised to see me play with the stops again as these instruments must continue to rally or we will cut the losses sooner.
Concerning new positions, for swing trades I prefer to have better risk/rewards given the recent rally. I do continue to write about and tweet trade ideas for the more active trader. As a subscriber, you are free to ask me any questions in an email.
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Existing Position: Long ½ GLD 104.35 ATR: 1.28
Name of Instrument: SPDR Gold Trust
Current Price: 115.52
*RAISED***Trailing Stop: 114.49
Reason For Trade: In a Recovery Phase and trying to base, like the wider risk to see if it can hold the January Calendar Range Low 102.49. If it does, 106.24 is the January Calendar Range high. If that clears it also clears the 100 DMA with next overhead resistance at 109 the 200 DMA. At this point I’d rather hold GLD in case it has bottom but we will look to take some off around 2:1 risk/reward ratio or at around 109-110 level.
****REACHED! First Target: Sold ½ at 108.00
*** REACHED! Second Target sold another ½ of remaining position: 111.94
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***Out of ½ at 13.26. Existing Position: RSX: Long ½ 13.70 ATR: .60
Name of Instrument: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust
Current Price: 14.54
****Raised: Sell Stop: 13.24 (sold ½ at 13.26)
Reason for trade: On Jan. 15th this gapped lower and proceeded to provide a two-day Reversal pattern at the lows which was followed by a gap higher leaving an Island-Bottom formation in place. This pattern is a strong signal that a longer term bottom is now in place and provides support from which to trade.
First Target: 15.47 for ½ off
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Existing Position: Long GDX 16.55 ATR .80
Name of Instrument: Market Vectors Gold Miners
Current Price: 18.54
**RAISED: Trailing Stop 17.09
Reason For Trade: After exploding higher earlier in February, the correction was about 10% from the highs. Our long has a stop under the 10 and 200 DMA. Plus, it has cleared a 50 Week Moving Average so our stop is under that as well. A base that has been forming on the daily chart going back from July 2015 and with the recent strength in GDX, indicates that if it can get to 19.00 and hold (near our first target), it can go much higher over time.
REACHED!! First Profit Target: Take off ½ at 18.90
Second Profit Target: Sell another ½ of remaining position at: 21.24
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Existing Position: Long 1/2 position in DBC at 12.64 ATR: .24 and 1/2 position in DBA at 19.93 ATR: .15
Name of Instruments: DB Commodity Tracking Index and PwrShares DB Ag Fund
Current Price: DBC: 12.63
DBA: 19.94
Sell stops: DBC 11.97 DBA 19.54 or about 2.5 ATRs
Reason For Trade: We have been tracking momentum with our relatively new proprietary software tool. Both indicate the momentum to the downside looks as though it’s over. We are doing ½ and ½ and counting them as one whole position spread out over many different commodities. DBA is mainly agriculturals while DBC is mainly metals and oil. This way, we are diversified. It is possible we will add to the positions if they have phase changes to recovery so this is a good way to get in now without a lot of risk.
First Profit Targets: DBC: 13.84 for 1/3-1/2 off DBA: 20.64 for 1/3-1/2 off
DBA
DBC
