****NOTE: In last night’s commentary I mentioned to subscribers that if RSX recaptured 13.47 I would consider buying back the ½ we sold defensively. The spike down after the oil inventory report and then the ensuing run happened fast. Hard to capture for the service, I hope that some of you followed the advice independently. More importantly, the stock and ETF selection has been nearly 100% spot on. The comments I give you each night are meant for guidance and as education. Plus, I encourage you to ask me questions on twitter. @marketminute.
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Existing Position:DBA: Long 20.17 ATR: .23
Name of Instrument: (ARCX) PwrShs DB Ag Fd
Current Price: 20.13
Sell Stop: 19.64
Reason for Trade: After a 2-day reversal pattern, the move over the 10 DMA, even though it is still under the 50 DMA, gives us a good risk/reward ratio to the lows. If good, then once it clears the 50 DMA our target is reasonable. Furthermore, we can move the stop up under the 10 DMA if it doesn’t make a move sooner rather than later.
First Target: 20.99 for ½ off
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Existing Position: Long ½ GLD 104.35 ATR: 1.28
Name of Instrument: SPDR Gold Trust
Current Price: 109.25
****Trailing Stop: 105.49
Reason For Trade: In a Recovery Phase and trying to base, like the wider risk to see if it can hold the January Calendar Range Low 102.49. If it does, 106.24 is the January Calendar Range high. If that clears it also clears the 100 DMA with next overhead resistance at 109 the 200 DMA. At this point I’d rather hold GLD in case it has bottom but we will look to take some off around 2:1 risk/reward ratio or at around 109-110 level.
****REACHED! First Target: Sold ½ at 108.00
Second Target for another ½ of remaining position: 111.97
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***Out of ½ at 13.26. Existing Position: RSX: Long ½ 13.70 ATR: .60
Name of Instrument: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust
Current Price: 14.22
Sell Stop: 12.77
Reason for trade: On Jan. 15th this gapped lower and proceeded to provide a two-day Reversal pattern at the lows which was followed by a gap higher leaving an Island-Bottom formation in place. This pattern is a strong signal that a longer term bottom is now in place and provides support from which to trade.
First Target: 15.47 for ½ off
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New Position: Long BBRY at 6.97 ATR .30
Name of Instrument: BlackBerry Ltd
Current Price: 7.18
Sell Stop: 6.57
Reason for Trade: Not a phase change trade, rather a combination of fundamental and technical indicators. In late December, BBRY was trading above the 50 and 200 DMAs on news that they beat guidance expectations and the worst of the company’s contraction was over. Furthermore, the technology on Blackberry phones makes it the phone of choice for those who do not wish to be tracked. From Government officials to movie stars, many who wish to remain untraceable, use BBRY. Technically, on January 20th, BBRY made a one-day reversal pattern. The January 6-month Calendar Range low is at 6.72. Getting in under 7.00 gives us the flexibility to see if it holds the JCRL with a stop just beneath. If it is indeed bottoming, upside is at least to 50% retracement between the peak high in December to the peak low. That would give us 3 ATRs and a good first target.
First Profit Target: Sell ½ at 7.83
