***Note: Raise stop in VIXY to: 13.47
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Existing Position: Long ¼ GLD 104.35 ATR: 1.28
Name of Instrument: SPDR Gold Trust
Current Price: 121.53
*RAISED***Trailing Stop: 117.17
Reason For Trade: In a Recovery Phase and trying to base, like the wider risk to see if it can hold the January Calendar Range Low 102.49. If it does, 106.24 is the January Calendar Range high. If that clears it also clears the 100 DMA with next overhead resistance at 109 the 200 DMA. At this point I’d rather hold GLD in case it has bottom but we will look to take some off around 2:1 risk/reward ratio or at around 109-110 level.
****REACHED! First Target: Sold ½ at 108.00
*** REACHED! Second Target sold another ½ of remaining position: 111.94
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Existing Position: RSX: Long tail 13.70 ATR: .60
Name of Instrument: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust
Current Price: 15.72
****Raised: Sell Stop: 14.67
Reason for trade: On Jan. 15th this gapped lower and proceeded to provide a two-day Reversal pattern at the lows which was followed by a gap higher leaving an Island-Bottom formation in place. This pattern is a strong signal that a longer term bottom is now in place and provides support from which to trade.
REACHED!!! Sold ½ at First Target: 15.47
***Second Profit Target sold at 15.74-no more profit targets will just trail up stop in tail
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Existing Position: Long GDX 16.55 ATR .80
Name of Instrument: Market Vectors Gold Miners
Current Price: 20.40
**RAISED: Trailing Stop ¼ position: 18.29 ¼ position lowered: 16.55
Reason For Trade: After exploding higher earlier in February, the correction was about 10% from the highs. Our long has a stop under the 10 and 200 DMA. Plus, it has cleared a 50 Week Moving Average so our stop is under that as well. A base that has been forming on the daily chart going back from July 2015 and with the recent strength in GDX, indicates that if it can get to 19.00 and hold (near our first target), it can go much higher over time.
REACHED!! First Profit Target: Take off ½ at 18.90
Second Profit Target: Sell another ½ of remaining position at: 21.24
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Existing Position: Long 1/2 position in DBC at 12.64 ATR: .24 and 1/2 position in DBA at 19.93 ATR: .15
Name of Instruments: DB Commodity Tracking Index and PwrShares DB Ag Fund
Current Price: DBC: 13.39
DBA: 20.61
***RAISED Sell stops: DBC 12.54 DBA 19.83 (just under breakeven)
Reason For Trade: We have been tracking momentum with our relatively new proprietary software tool. Both indicate the momentum to the downside looks as though it’s over. We are doing ½ and ½ and counting them as one whole position spread out over many different commodities. DBA is mainly agriculturals while DBC is mainly metals and oil. This way, we are diversified. It is possible we will add to the positions if they have phase changes to recovery so this is a good way to get in now without a lot of risk.
First Profit Targets: DBC: 13.84 for 1/3-1/2 off DBA: 20.64 for 1/3-1/2 off
DBA
DBC
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Existing Position: Long TYC at 34.21 ATR .93
Name of Instrument: Tyco Int’l Ltd.
Current Price: 35.42
Sell Stop: 34.21
Reason For Trade: TYC is an American company that makes security solutions and fire protection. They advance safety and security for more than 3 million companies worldwide. Using the momentum indicator, I have been writing about, it is exhibiting positive momentum and outperforming the SPY. It is also above the January 6-month Calendar Range high. We bought it on an opening range reversal to get the risk to just about 2 ATRs. The underlying 50 DMA has a positive slope and is higher than our stop which gives us room to be more defensive if need be. It is also above the 10 and 100 DMAs with the 200 DMA overhead at 35.99. With security an ongoing concern throughout the world, this meets the criteria for one of my top 10 megatrends. If gets through 36.00 we could see last August highs or higher. Like all trades, will adjust stops and targets as it develops.
First Profit Target: Sell ½ 38.04
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Existing Position: VIXY: Long 14.49 ATR: .87
Name of Instrument: ARCX ProShs VIX Short-Term Fut
Current Price: 14.57
Sell Stop: 12.47
Reason For Trade: This instrument has corrected from the February peak at 20.44 down to the 200 DMA last Friday, March 4th. We bought an opening range reversal after the second test and hold of the 200 DMA. We have our stop under the December 29th low with room to raise it if the market continues to go much higher and reduce risk exposure. Momentum on the short and long term remains positive. If the market corrects or resumes the down move, VIXY could easily rally back to 17.00 area or higher.
First Profit Target: Sell ½ 17.47
