***Sell and Trailing Stop changes:
DBC: Lower to 12.67 DBA: 20.24
GLD: Lower to 114.47 SLV: 14.07
Sell Stop Change: TYC: Lower to 35.24
***NOTE: Lower GDX trailing stop to 17.14
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Existing Position: Long SLV 14.67 ATR: .30
Name of Instrument: iShares Silver Trust
Current Price: 14.51
Reason For Trade: On our trend strength indicator, SLV is second strongest in our global macro model which includes metals. It’s been underperforming gold but outperforming the S&P 500. In an Accumulation Phase currently, our stop below the 50 DMA and right on the 100 DMA is about 2 ½ ATRs and a good wide berth that gives us room to move it around if SLV goes into a golden cross. If SLV is good and plays catch up, we should see a move first into October 2015 highs around 15.40 and then perhaps higher. Then next resistance is right at our first profit target. Undervalued and basing since last October, the risk/reward makes sense.
***LOWERED Sell Stop: 14.07
First Profit Target Sell ½: 16.09
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Existing Position: Long ¼ GLD 104.35 ATR: 1.28
Name of Instrument: SPDR Gold Trust
Current Price: 116.61
***LOWERED Trailing Stop: 114.47
Reason For Trade: In a Recovery Phase and trying to base, like the wider risk to see if it can hold the January Calendar Range Low 102.49. If it does, 106.24 is the January Calendar Range high. If that clears it also clears the 100 DMA with next overhead resistance at 109 the 200 DMA. At this point I’d rather hold GLD in case it has bottom but we will look to take some off around 2:1 risk/reward ratio or at around 109-110 level.
****REACHED! First Target: Sold ½ at 108.00
*** REACHED! Second Target sold another ½ of remaining position: 111.94
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Existing Position: RSX: Long tail 13.70 ATR: .60
Name of Instrument: Market Vector Russia ETF Trust
Current Price: 16.22
Trailing Stop: 15.47
Reason for trade: On Jan. 15th this gapped lower and proceeded to provide a two-day Reversal pattern at the lows which was followed by a gap higher leaving an Island-Bottom formation in place. This pattern is a strong signal that a longer term bottom is now in place and provides support from which to trade.
Sold ½ at First Target: 15.47
***Second Profit Target sold at 15.74-no more profit targets will just trail up stop in tail
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Position: Long ¼ GDX 16.55 ATR .80
Name of Instrument: Market Vectors Gold Miners
Current Price: 20.58
Trailing Stop: 19.02
Reason For Trade: After exploding higher earlier in February, the correction was about 10% from the highs. Our long has a stop under the 10 and 200 DMA. Plus, it has cleared a 50 Week Moving Average so our stop is under that as well. A base that has been forming on the daily chart going back from July 2015 and with the recent strength in GDX, indicates that if it can get to 19.00 and hold (near our first target), it can go much higher over time.
REACHED!! First Profit Target: Take off ½ at 18.90
***REACHED!! Second Profit Target: Sold another ½ of remaining position at: 21.24
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TARGET!! Sold ½ DBA at 20.74 leaves ¼ position from 19.93
Existing Position: Long 1/2 position in DBC at 12.64 ATR: .24 and 1/4 position in DBA at 19.93 ATR: .15
Name of Instruments: DB Commodity Tracking Index and PwrShares DB Ag Fund
Current Price: DBC: 13.42
DBA: 20.98
***LOWERED Trailing stop: DBC 12.67 ***LOWERED Trailing Stop: DBA 20.24
Reason For Trade: We have been tracking momentum with our relatively new proprietary software tool. Both indicate the momentum to the downside looks as though it’s over. We are doing ½ and ½ and counting them as one whole position spread out over many different commodities. DBA is mainly agriculturals while DBC is mainly metals and oil. This way, we are diversified. It is possible we will add to the positions if they have phase changes to recovery so this is a good way to get in now without a lot of risk.
First Profit Targets: DBC: 13.84 for 1/2 off
REACHED!!! DBA: Sold ½ at 20.74
Second Profit Target DBA: Sell ½ of existing position at 21.44
DBA
DBC
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Existing Position: Long TYC at 34.21 ATR .93
Name of Instrument: Tyco Int’l Ltd.
Current Price: 35.72
***LOWERED TRAILING Stop: 35.24
Reason For Trade: TYC is an American company that makes security solutions and fire protection. They advance safety and security for more than 3 million companies worldwide. Using the momentum indicator, I have been writing about, it is exhibiting positive momentum and outperforming the SPY. It is also above the January 6-month Calendar Range high. We bought it on an opening range reversal to get the risk to just about 2 ATRs. The underlying 50 DMA has a positive slope and is higher than our stop which gives us room to be more defensive if need be. It is also above the 10 and 100 DMAs with the 200 DMA overhead at 35.99. With security an ongoing concern throughout the world, this meets the criteria for one of my top 10 megatrends. If gets through 36.00 we could see last August highs or higher. Like all trades, will adjust stops and targets as it develops.
First Profit Target: Sell ½ 38.04
