Well look at that- S&P 500 cleared the nasty candle high from 2/28-in fact, one week ago today! However, the Russell 2000 could not nor NASDAQ. The Dow, on the other hand, which has a very different looking chart, looks solid although it too has to clear 141.31. The advanced/declines indicate the market is neutral to positive. That could mean lots more upside in store. The transportation sector led the way, as expected. If the market holds here, I would venture to say, if not already long, you have not missed the boat. And that is what you want to hear at current market levels!
S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared 152.86 and has to stay here, plus take out the last brick wall high at 153.28 soon too. Support to hold now today's low Subs: Pivots Positive in all indexes
Russell 2000 (IWM) 91.53 has to clear first; then 92.56 and today's low has to hold
Dow (DIA) Would like to see 141.31 clear
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) The 2/28 high here is 67.81 then the recent highs 68.26 with support to hold today's low
GLD Subs: 152 support held for now with a low weekly RSI
XLF (Financials) 17.85 is resistance to clear then 17.94 before we start talking 19.95 again
IBB (Biotechnology) New highs today-very impressive
SMH (Semiconductors): Last Monday and Thursday highs have to clear. Subs: Over 35.40 area would take the swing risk to 34.30 area
XRT (Retail) Cleared the 2/28 and like financials and semiconductors, has to eventually clear recent highs
IYT (Transportation) New all-time highs
IYR (Real Estate) Has to clear and close above today's high then could see another leg up.
XLE (Energy) Subs: Now that there are 2 days of negative pivots, a move over R1 and today's high has a good risk to under today's lows
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) A trend up today which if continues should be good for market Subs: Bought the opening range reversal but now want to see this clear the 50 DMA and really 66.05
XHB (Homebuilders) Also has overhead but made a nice move today
EWI (MSCI Italy Cap Index) Subs: Featured on today's video and on Keith's Outlook. Held the 200 DMA and touched the 65-weekly moving average. On a 30 minute opening range breakout, would buy over 12.30 with risk to under 12.00
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ARUN 3 days under pivots with an inside day, which means it has to clear or hold 24.70 then R1 25.02
HCA If holds 36.15, clears the FTP then today's high, 38.00 next hurdle
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
ARMH Still want to see 44.00 clear with stop under the 10 DMA
HOG If holds the pivots could risk and over 53.22 should keep going
V It held the 10 DMA at 158 and over 160 could see 166 area
AXP has to clear 63.00 and hold 62.20 area
GS Triggered today and now improved in condition. 151.80 is the 10 DMA and has some overhead at 156 to clear
CSC 47.82 good risk and needs to clear 48.40 with some volume
KBH has to clear 19.31 and hold 18.60. Looks like it could clear the 80 monthly moving average-1st time since 2007
BA Slightly negative pivots so has to clear R1 77.61 and then over 78 to keep going. Risk today's low
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
OSK Still watching for a move over today's high and R1
KLAC Inside day, has to hold today's low and clear today's high and the 10 DMA
Phase Change: PANL confirmed phase change to accumulation. Today's low max risk AVB Confirmed a slingshot with 126 a good pivotal area. NTES Tested the 200 DMA then rallied back above it. 50.65 level is a good risk with 51.50 perhaps the better place to buy this against on a dip ACT Unconfirmed phase change to recovery. Can use 85.55 level for a risk and like if holds and clears the 50 DMA 86.17
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
LULU 68.00 max risk and really should break today's low and S1
CSTR 50.88 the 50 DMA good risk. 47.00 area next support
BIDU 92.12 good risk and now under today's low needs follow through
IACI 41.45 max risk with 40 support next time not as strong
Bye for Now!