Welcome to pre-Federal Reserve Meeting Week! Monday’s action begins exhibiting characteristics of a split personality. On the one hand there’s the gap higher over fast moving averages with theDow closing up 109 which suggests that Ben and the boys/girls will keep the spigot on. On the other hand, there are the long bonds, which got hit hard readying us for the possibility of higher rates. The price point on the daily charts of all 4 indexes are pretty much smack dab in the middle of the May 22nd high and June 6th low. Volume was not startling nor is the relative strength indicatorneither overbought nor oversold. I suspect this up and down action will continue until something definitive (or definitively not definitive) emerges.
S&P 500 (SPY) 165.40 area to clear and under 162.91, the 50 DMA will not stop a decline should it get a 4th visit Subscribers: positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) 98.80 number to clear. Has room to the downside without looking too horrible for now
Dow (DIA) 152.88 number to clear and should 150.39 break, like SPY, the 50 DMA won’t mean too much
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) To break the lower highs since the peak high May6 22nd, this has to at least clear 73.76
ETFs:
GLD 135 resistance with 130 a very substantial area of support-with sentiment still bearish unless it gets back over the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) 19.83 (not a bad year for disco fans), is now the high last 3 days. Should mean something if clears it
IBB (Biotechnology) Unconfirmed warning phase-first time since December 2012 Subscribers:Maybe the 2013 Phases and Forecast prediction that this has topped out for now coming to fruition
SMH (Semiconductors) Still love this group-first place I’d go if the market can find its way.Subscribers: 38.50 has to clear
XRT (Retail) Inside day on the 10 DMA-interesting spot
IYT (Transportation) 111.50 needs to hold
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day and really important to the whole deal.
USO (US Oil Fund) 34.60 should be pivotal for now
OIH (Oil Services) Back to unconfirmed bullish and into some resistance
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Holding long term support but has some resistance to clear
UUP (Dollar Bull) Very oversold
SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Seems the most logical thing to wait for is a clearance of the 50 DMA
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
**NOTE: Notice all Category 3's on list which means if its a consolidation but relatively firm day, have opening range reversals to watch for. If it's a strong day, alot of these will have breakouts.
Category 1: (Aloha) N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)
SPLK Really, has to clear 44.80 but, with positive pivots and an inside day, 44.28 is also a point to clear with risk to the 50 DMA
PFG Crossed the 80 monthly moving average last month. Cannot break S1 and clear today’s high.
MET Compressing and holding the 80 monthly moving average. 45.15 clears recent price activity and should hold 44.40
GE Should hold now around 23.60. Once this clears 24.14 should see it continue-albeit slowly
MS 3 inside days! Worth watching for that alone with risk to under Friday’s low
JWN 2 inside days. However, would like to see it clear 59.61-then the 50 DMA becomes the swing risk
HLX Coiled like a spring on converging moving averages and recently crossed the 80 monthly. Needs to clear 23.75
BXP Inside day. Holding the 50 DMA now a new risk after the slingshot low proved itself
GD Compressing at these levels which could mean over 79.00 in a good market, will send this to higher levels
Category 4: (Rip Tide)N/A
Phase Change:
KFN 10.59 level is the 50 DMA to hold with 10.41 the 80 monthly moving average
Shorts:
Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
CAT Has been above the 80 monthly for years and now looking more vulnerable especially under the 200 weekly. Furthermore, this is down year to year. If cannot clear 84.50, like the short for a swing noting the slingshot low in April
SCCO Similar to CAT only breaking the 80 monthly. Under S1 29.71 looks weak.
AAPL Inside day. Today’s high good risk and under Friday’s low 428.50 looks weaker
MOS 2 inside days. Heavy under today’s low with risk 58.55
PANL Not looking too healthy except for some support around 26.95. If that breaks, see nothing until 23.00
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows
CHRW Under today’s low and S1 will look vulnerable since already under the 80 monthly moving average
Bye for Now!