Active Investing Edge Mentoring for August 18, 2026
TITLE: Weakening Semiconductors, Bond Pressure, Divergence Signals, and Disciplined Opening Range Trades (08-18-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff analyzed a weak market open shaped by semiconductor weakness, declining bonds, and rising volatility. He explained how USO’s breakout and bond pressure had created risk for stocks, while SPY, QQQ, IWM, and equal-weight indexes showed varying degrees of support. Geoff emphasized five-minute Real Motion divergences and the importance of price action confirming momentum around the 200-period moving average, warning that an unsuccessful retest could create further downside pressure. He identified SMH as the key leadership gauge, especially after its rejection near 600, and used VIX, TLT, crude oil, VWAP, and RSP to assess whether a reversal could develop. Geoff advised against buying dips beneath the opening range and preferred SPY over SMH for a cautious bounce attempt. He also reviewed sector strength in biotechnology, energy, financials, and selected stocks, applying stops, ATR-based risk, breakout confirmation, and second-day entry logic. Geoff concluded that traders should wait for confirmation rather than force entries in a dangerous inflection point.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Futures, ETFs, and Five-Minute Divergence: Geoff reviewed the weak futures setup, USO’s flag, SPY and QQQ support, and SMH’s failed move near 600. He demonstrated how five-minute Real Motion divergence can help identify reversals, while stressing that confirmation remains essential.
- [00:10:18] Bond Weakness as an Intermarket Warning: Geoff compared TLT and IEF, explaining why long-bond weakness could pressure stocks and signal higher long-term rates. He identified potential support in the ten-year market but cautioned against overreacting during a slow August news environment.
- [00:14:45] Sector Checkup and the Opening Picture: Geoff used the daily checkup to identify sector reversals, compressed setups, and notable strength in biotechnology and energy. He then assessed the opening levels for SMH, IWM, QQQ, SPY, and bonds before the market settled.
- [00:22:26] Opening Range Risk and Semiconductor Leadership: Geoff warned that an opening range breakdown could expose a failed breakout sequence and draw in downside momentum. He used VIX, TLT, crude oil, RSP, and especially SMH to define when buying the dip was acceptable.
- [00:35:47] Opportunity Report and Position Management: Geoff reviewed Opportunity Report names and applied practical risk rules, including moving an XLE stop after reaching a target, using ATRs for IBB, and waiting for opening-range confirmation before buying extended technology stocks.
- [00:47:36] Stock Review Amid a Fragile Market: Geoff assessed J&J, Merck, financials, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Dell, SpaceX, Apple, and other names. He favored strong non-technology stocks when semiconductors weakened and repeatedly advised waiting for confirmation instead of chasing momentum.
- [01:12:44] SMH Reversal, VWAP, and Safer Index Exposure: Geoff examined a possible double bottom and positive divergence in SPY futures, then treated SMH as the leading-sector confirmation tool. He defined VWAP, 572.50, and the opening range as tactical decision levels, preferring SPY over SMH for a bounce.
- [01:29:50] Individual Stocks and Final Trading Guidance: Geoff reviewed Dow components, Apple, Etsy, Verizon, Home Depot, Amazon, and others. He emphasized waiting for confirmation, respecting market context, and selecting stocks with constructive patterns rather than forcing trades while SMH remained weak.
