Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 11, 2026

September 11, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: Inflation Data Supports Large-Cap Rotation as Oil, Bonds, Breadth, and Opening Range Setups Shape the Market (09-11-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff analyzed a market reacting positively to inflation data while pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. He focused on the relationship between crude oil, Treasury bonds through TLT, and equities, noting that oil’s sharp rise had pressured RSP and broader market breadth while technology, semiconductors, the Nasdaq futures, and the Magnificent Seven held up better. Geoff identified key confirmation levels, including crude closing below the prior low, TLT reclaiming prior highs, RSP recovering VWAP, and the S&P 500 holding its failed breakdown. He explained how five-minute opening ranges can manage risk when economic news and daily levels overlap, while emphasizing that breakouts require confirmation and tight stops. Geoff also reviewed setups in Intel, Meta, Oracle, NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, and others, then demonstrated scans for inside days and strong trends. By the close, rising crude had limited enthusiasm, shifting his preference toward confirmed opening-range reversals rather than chasing breakouts.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Oil, Bonds, and Equity Rotation: Geoff framed the market through crude oil, bonds, and stocks, explaining how oil strength pressured RSP and broader breadth while technology, semiconductors, Nasdaq futures, and large-cap growth showed relative resilience.
  2. [00:09:24] Inflation Reaction and Key Levels: Geoff assessed the positive initial response to inflation data and outlined support and confirmation levels for the S&P 500, TLT, crude oil, and RSP, while warning that a failed expected Fed hike could create volatility.
  3. [00:20:15] Failed Breakdowns and Opening Ranges: Geoff demonstrated the failed-breakdown setup using USO, showing how strong momentum, an opening-range reclaim, and a close above the prior breakdown level can create a disciplined entry framework for continuation trades.
  4. [00:36:23] Five-Minute Risk Management: Geoff explained that five-minute opening ranges matter most when paired with economic catalysts or major daily levels, using the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to show how traders can define risk around reversals and failed moves.
  5. [00:52:57] RSP, VWAP, and Crude Confirmation: Geoff compared QQQ, SPY, SMH, RSP, TLT, and crude in real time, emphasizing that RSP reclaiming VWAP while oil weakened would provide stronger evidence that the broader market was embracing the inflation report.
  6. [01:21:11] Stock Setups Require Patience: Geoff reviewed potential trades in Hood, NVIDIA, Intel, Meta, Oracle, Apple, Amazon, and other technology names, stressing confirmation above moving averages, divergence development, market alignment, and avoiding entries into nearby resistance.
  7. [01:31:02] Scanning for Strong Inside Days: Geoff demonstrated a scanner for high-ranked stocks with inside-day patterns, stronger trend positioning, and bullish or warning phases, identifying candidates such as UNM, GCT, Match, NEO, and other names for further review.
  8. [01:43:39] Closing Outlook and Weekend Risk: Geoff concluded that crude’s persistent advance had capped equity enthusiasm, favoring an opening-range reversal over a breakout unless oil weakened, RSP continued above VWAP, and markets maintained their key opening-range lows.

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