Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 14, 2026
TITLE: Higher Oil and Rate Hike Pressure Meet AI Slowdown Fears as Geoff Maps Support, Rotation, and Tactical Entries (09-14-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff assessed a difficult Monday backdrop shaped by sharply higher crude oil, a likely Federal Open Market Committee rate hike, and comments from AI leaders about slowing development. He explained that futures had gapped lower but were not showing panic, making support and follow-through more important than the initial decline. Geoff compared the Nasdaq futures, S&P 500, RSP, SMH, and TLT, emphasizing that RSP’s relative strength could reflect a higher-rate environment rather than healthy rotation. He reviewed support near 540 in SMH and 81.30 in TLT, while advising patience around opening-range behavior. Geoff then examined individual setups in Meta, Intel, NVIDIA, CrowdStrike, Qualcomm, Visa, and Robinhood, stressing position reduction when price remained below key levels and avoiding extended entries. He concluded that traders should identify stocks holding up while crude and indexes remain volatile, using opening-range breakouts, VWAP transitions, ATR-based stops, and confirmation from broader indexes.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Oil, Rates, and AI Slowdown Fears: Geoff outlined the session’s three major pressures: crude moving toward new highs after Saudi pipeline disruption, a likely rate hike, and AI executives discussing slower development. He framed the combination as a reason for caution rather than automatic panic.
- [00:07:58] Indexes, RSP, SMH, and TLT Support: Geoff compared Nasdaq futures, RSP, SMH, and TLT to determine whether the gap lower represented panic or consolidation. He emphasized support levels, the 540 SMH area, and whether bonds would diverge from crude strength.
- [00:16:23] Position Management in Key Technology Stocks: Geoff reviewed Meta, Intel, AMD, and NVIDIA, distinguishing software exposure from hardware sensitivity to an AI slowdown. He used opening ranges, moving averages, prior highs, and predefined stops to explain when to wait, reduce, or reassess positions.
- [00:28:04] Sector Rotation Under Pressure: Geoff evaluated healthcare, financials, industrials, and biotechnology after the open. He noted that XLI was weakening despite earlier rotation hopes, while higher oil, rates, and AI uncertainty created a difficult environment for industrial shares.
- [00:33:41] Relative Strength in Technology and Security: Geoff searched for stocks resisting the broad technology decline, highlighting Meta, Amazon, CrowdStrike, Qualcomm, and semiconductor names near support. He favored evidence of relative strength and consolidation, while warning against chasing extended moves.
- [01:03:37] Opening-Range Breakouts Need Confirmation: Geoff analyzed developing breakouts in the SPY, QQQ, and SMH, using futures pivots, the 200-period moving average, real-motion divergence, and crude oil behavior. He wanted Nasdaq and semiconductors stronger while oil rolled over before trusting follow-through.
- [01:12:26] Tactical Entries and Weekly Support: Geoff finished with tactical ideas in Visa, Qualcomm, CrowdStrike, and Robinhood, favoring VWAP transitions, opening-range breaks, weekly support, and roughly one-ATR risk. He closed by urging traders to watch which stocks hold up as AI and oil concerns shape the week.
