Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 23, 2026

September 23, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: Managing Extended Stock Gains With Bonds, Oil, Breakout Support, And Opening Range Reversals (09-23-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff analyzed how to manage positions after a sharp advance, noting that the NASDAQ had gained roughly 6% in a week while many instruments reached new highs. He assessed bonds, crude oil, RSP, SMH, SPY, and the QQQs to determine whether market drivers remained supportive. Geoff explained why SMH and the QQQs offered better opportunities to let winners run, while SPY required tighter management near prior-day lows and 50% retracement support. He demonstrated a framework using pivots, prior-day highs and lows, round numbers, opening-range breakdowns, and closing-and-continuing price action. During the live session, Geoff monitored weakening bonds, crude’s recovery and rejection, RealMotion momentum, breadth, and sector leadership before identifying potential entries in futures, Meta, Apple, Palantir, Merck, Intel, and other stocks. He emphasized waiting for confirmation, defining stops, respecting intermarket risk, and recognizing a potential bottom when price reclaimed the high of a low bar.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Market Inventory: Bonds, Oil, And Breadth: Geoff reviews the recent NASDAQ advance alongside bonds, crude oil, RSP, SMH, SPY, and the QQQs. He explains why stable oil and bonds would allow stocks to lead while RSP remains an important breadth gauge.
  2. [00:05:53] Letting Strong Breakouts Run: Geoff uses SMH and the NQ futures to show how prior-bar lows, pivots, prior-day highs, and round numbers can manage an extended winner. He favors peeling out only after meaningful weakness rather than selling automatically into strength.
  3. [00:17:02] Why The Breakout May Have Legs: Geoff explains why the response to the rate hike, crude oil’s shift, extended market consolidation, and a substantial technical breakout support giving leading positions room to run, while acknowledging that the thesis still requires ongoing testing.
  4. [00:22:58] Intraday Levels Across SPY And QQQ: Geoff maps pivots, prior-day levels, S1 and S2, and opening-range behavior across SPY and QQQ. He compares relative strength and stresses that confirmation above or below these areas should guide defensive decisions.
  5. [00:35:46] Intermarket Weakness And RealMotion: Geoff studies sectors, TLT, USO, RSP, SMH, and RealMotion as stocks weaken. He explains why failed rebounds and momentum deterioration matter, but also identifies support zones where SPY or QQQ could attempt an opening-range reversal.
  6. [01:09:57] Finding Resilient Stocks During A Selloff: Geoff looks beyond index weakness to find stocks holding support, including Meta, Apple, Intel, MU, and HOOD. He emphasizes buying relative strength near pivots or VWAP with clearly defined stops rather than chasing broad weakness.
  7. [01:27:00] Managing The Futures Reversal Trade: Geoff enters QQQ futures after a stretched decline and defines a stop below the low of the day. He continually weighs the trade against TLT weakness, crude’s direction, RSP behavior, and whether price respects the reclaimed support area.
  8. [01:38:59] Reading Crude Rejection And A Potential Bottom: Geoff closes by explaining how a crude oil breakout that immediately fails, while stocks hold up, can reveal rejection and support a tactical bounce. He presents the high of the low bar as a reusable bottoming template.

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