Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 23, 2026
TITLE: Tech Earnings Pressure, Bond Strength, Crude Risk, and Rotation Into Resilient Sectors (10-23-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff framed the market around three competing signals: technology shares were under pressure during earnings season, TLT had rallied through its 50-day moving average, and crude oil was pressing higher. He noted that strength in RSP and several sectors—including financials, healthcare, transportation, utilities, and consumer staples—suggested a rotation rather than indiscriminate selling, though he warned that a broader bond-over-stock preference could undermine that resilience. Geoff treated SMH’s decline toward its 200-day average and nearby support as a risk area, not an automatic buying opportunity, particularly ahead of more major technology earnings and the Fed. He explained that a sustained crude advance paired with weakness in TLT and RSP would pose a more serious threat to stocks. In individual names, he favored strong trends, clear support, and defined stops, advising patience for confirmation rather than chasing extended moves or buying weakness simply because a level was nearby.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Bonds, Crude, and Sector Breadth: Geoff connected TLT’s move above its 50-day average with semiconductor weakness and rising crude, then examined sector performance for evidence of rotation. He emphasized that broad-sector resilience mattered more than debating a single market narrative.
- [00:11:59] Earnings Season and Tech Selling: Geoff argued that technology and other large stocks were being sold around earnings, regardless of the detailed financing debate. He watched RSP and major indexes to determine whether that selling remained a healthy rotation or broadened into market-wide weakness.
- [00:20:46] Reading Sector Charts: Geoff compared financials, energy, housing, retail, healthcare, staples, real estate, and utilities, noting both constructive price action and defensive demand. His practical takeaway was to assess each group’s trend and moving-average position rather than assume all stocks were falling together.
- [00:29:55] Crude Risk and Index Support: Geoff assessed weakness in the S&P and Nasdaq alongside SMH’s approach to support, while identifying rising crude as a potential threat. He said a further crude surge combined with falling TLT and RSP would be a key warning for stocks.
- [00:42:31] Stock Setups and Entry Discipline: Geoff reviewed energy and technology candidates, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, refiners, AMD, and Amazon. He distinguished managing existing positions from initiating new ones and favored waiting for support, confirmation, or a defined stop instead of chasing.
- [00:59:46] Biotech and Large-Cap Trade Plans: Geoff weighed market conditions before considering biotech and large-cap names, including Moderna, Microsoft, Apple, and Google. He discussed news-driven volatility, support zones, and risk levels, stressing that a promising chart still needed confirmation and a workable stop.
- [01:13:56] Semiconductors and Risk Management: Geoff checked semiconductor-related stocks and other watchlist names, separating potential support from actionable entries. He preferred waiting for price strength above key levels and continued to avoid buying weak charts without confirmation or a suitable risk boundary.
- [01:26:07] Screening for Strong Industry Groups: Geoff used a top-ranked stock scan, filtered by market phase and price, to find stronger names across industry groups, especially biotech. He closed by favoring stocks near highs with solid trends and defined risk, while keeping crude, bonds, earnings, and SMH support in view.
