Active Investing Edge Mentoring for October 30, 2026
TITLE: Tech Earnings Selloff Tests Index Support as Bonds, Crude, Semiconductors, and Broader Market Leaders Diverge (10-30-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff assessed a sharp technology-led selloff against a broader market that initially appeared more resilient, emphasizing support zones in the major indexes and the need to wait for opening-range evidence before taking risk. He identified potential support in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, while cautioning against catching falling technology stocks without widespread reversals. Geoff watched TLT for signs of a flight to bonds and treated persistently strong crude, tracked through USO, as a headwind for equities. In semiconductors, he discussed SMH support and the possibility of a bullish divergence if it held while the QQQ and SPY made lower lows. His review of large-cap technology and other leaders separated damaged charts from names still near meaningful support or longer-term averages. Geoff also surveyed stronger stocks beyond mega-cap technology, explaining that RSP breadth could offer opportunities. As the session unfolded, he stressed patience, defined risk, and confirmation through intraday reversals rather than assuming the selloff had ended.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Index Support, Bonds, and Crude: Geoff compared overnight weakness with nearby support in the indexes and explained why an unsettled intraday pattern could create an inflection point. He monitored TLT and crude as key signals for whether equity pressure might deepen.
- [00:13:32] Semiconductors and Opening Levels: Geoff mapped potential support in SMH, QQQ, and SPY, noting that SMH holding above a low while other indexes broke lower could signal divergence. He emphasized watching the opening range before treating any level as a trade.
- [00:19:27] Mega-Cap Charts and Risk: Geoff examined Amazon, Google, Intel, and Microsoft after earnings-related weakness, distinguishing potential chart support from confirmed buying interest. He advised against rushing into damaged technology names and related IWM’s outlook to rates and relative strength.
- [00:31:41] Stock-by-Stock Damage Assessment: Geoff reviewed ARQT, Qualcomm, Marvell, and major semiconductor names, comparing their relative weakness and support. He used longer-term charts and moving averages to frame pullbacks, while stressing that a plausible support area alone was not a buy signal.
- [00:55:00] Scanning Stronger Market Leaders: Geoff screened strong year-to-date stocks to judge whether trends remained intact, separating short-term weakness from outright chart damage. His review included technology, energy, cybersecurity, and other sectors, with attention to support and potential consolidation.
- [01:09:42] Watchlist Setups Beyond Mega-Cap Tech: Geoff revisited potential relative-strength names including Palantir, biotech, Pfizer, retail, Coca-Cola, and Cardinal Health. He discussed waiting for market stabilization, using defined support or breakout levels, and avoiding entries with poor risk points.
- [01:16:12] Intraday Breakdown and Reversal Tests: Geoff noted that SPY, SMH, IWM, and RSP were weakening while crude reached intraday highs and TLT lacked a strong breakout. He watched for failed follow-through below opening-range lows, cautioning against buying if the breakdown continued.
- [01:23:45] Tesla Risk Plan and Market Wrap: Geoff outlined a conditional Tesla setup with intraday and overnight risk levels, then considered Microsoft on an opening-range breakout if markets improved. He closed by weighing possible stabilization against renewed lows and highlighting opportunities beyond large technology stocks.
