Active Investing Edge Mentoring for November 5, 2026

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TITLE: Post-Election Rally Reversal: Semiconductor Weakness, Market Support, and Risk Management (11-05-2026)

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VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff assessed the sharp reversal after the election event, contrasting the S&P futures’ strong close the prior day with weakness in the Nasdaq and SMH. He noted that equal-weighted RSP strength had supported the broader bull-market case, but warned that semiconductor selling could spread. Geoff linked the pressure to weak momentum and Qualcomm’s outlook and supply-cost concerns, with nervous investors reacting sharply to bad news. He identified potential support in the ES futures near the prior low and 7,450, and in RSP around 220, while stressing that those levels were inflection points—not automatic buying opportunities. He also discussed crude oil’s sharp decline, bonds’ limited response, and the importance of watching whether defensive and non-technology groups held up. For individual positions, Geoff emphasized defined stops and allowing for opening-range volatility. His tactical conclusion was to stay patient, seek convincing reversal evidence across SPY, RSP, and SMH, and remain cautious until broader support appeared.

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SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

1. [00:00:00] Election Reaction and Intermarket Signals: Geoff compares the S&P futures’ close with weakness in SMH and the Nasdaq, then weighs RSP’s relative strength, crude oil’s collapse, and bonds’ muted response. He explains why those divergences matter to the broader bull-market outlook.
2. [00:17:32] Pivots, Support, and Sector Weakness: Geoff reviews the ES pivot and key Nasdaq levels, then considers a normal market correction and weekly chart context. His sector scan shows broad semiconductor pressure, while XLI and IYT weakness despite lower crude raises concern.
3. [00:30:18] Qualcomm and the Semiconductor Selloff: Geoff investigates Qualcomm’s results and the widespread declines among major semiconductor names, including AMD, TSM, and NVIDIA. He explains how weak momentum and nervous positioning can amplify bad news, and cautions against trying to catch SMH’s fall.
4. [00:45:04] Reversal Tests and Position Stops: Geoff watches RSP and SMH for possible reversal evidence, while reviewing stops and opening-range decisions in individual positions. He explains why traders may allow room during a panicked open but still need clear exit levels.
5. [00:57:35] Checking for Broader Market Stress: Geoff checks defensive and previously strong groups, the VIX, and TLT to judge whether the selloff is spreading beyond technology. He identifies RSP’s 200-day area and roughly 220 as important support, not a reason to buy blindly.
6. [01:08:04] Futures Levels and Confirmation: Geoff uses futures charts to locate support, including the ES prior low and the area near 7,450, while noting weakness in the Nasdaq and SMH. He says any trade idea needs convincing bottoms across SPY, RSP, and SMH.
7. [01:19:27] Risk Management and the Closing Outlook: Geoff checks which holdings and sectors remain resilient, reiterates that traders should stay patient, and frames the session as a technology-led selloff that might broaden. He advises monitoring RSP, defensive groups, and major stocks for signs of wider damage.