Active Investing Edge Mentoring for November 6, 2026
TITLE: Semiconductor Selloff, S&P Support, and Rotation Beyond AI Leadership (11-06-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff analyzed the sharp semiconductor-led selloff and argued that weakening momentum, fading leadership, and selling into good news had made the market vulnerable before the decline. He noted that stronger-than-expected payrolls produced little immediate reaction and said Fed-rate expectations were a better gauge of whether economic data mattered to markets. For SMH, Geoff compared past corrections, identified the 200-week moving average as a long-term reference and roughly 400 as a plausible support area if weakness continued, while cautioning against treating either as a forecast. He urged patience until price and momentum confirm a bottom, with SPY’s 200-day area and election-related ranges as near-term reference points. Geoff also stressed that RSP’s breadth and performance would matter if semiconductors remained weak, since other sectors could support the broader market. He reviewed opportunities and risks across sectors, including biotech, industrials, financials, gold, and energy, and advised traders not to fight further market declines.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] Payrolls, Fed Expectations, and the Selloff: Geoff noted that stronger payrolls barely moved the S&P 500 immediately and said Fed-funds expectations offer a more empirical test of market concern. He weighed stronger growth against rate risk and the wealth effect of falling equities.
- [00:07:53] Semiconductor Weakness and Market Panic: Geoff traced the selloff to weakening SMH breadth and momentum, alongside poor reactions to good news. He explained why follow-through, rotation, VIX, and bond demand help distinguish a vulnerable market from a washout that may be spent.
- [00:23:29] SMH Corrections and Historical Risk: Geoff compared SMH’s current decline with prior corrections, using the 200-week moving average and historical drawdown duration as context. He also challenged midterm-election optimism by emphasizing drawdowns and the risk of assuming the year will end higher.
- [00:38:24] SMH Levels and Fibonacci Context: Geoff framed the 200-week average as a worst-case reference within the longer bull trend and identified 400 as a possible support area if selling continues. He used Fibonacci retracements to explain why patience and confirmation matter.
- [00:59:17] SPY, QQQ, and RSP Confirmation: Geoff assessed SPY and QQQ support zones and warned against buying before a convincing bottom forms. He said RSP’s ability to hold up would be important if semiconductors stayed weak, and described what weekly follow-through could reveal.
- [01:13:15] Sector Breadth, Gold, and Energy: Geoff surveyed sectors including biotech, industrials, gold, and energy, comparing trend and momentum signals with the risks of buying weakness. He urged patience in gold and said energy setups depend partly on support and the war’s resolution.
- [01:24:18] Financials and a Broader Market Path: Geoff highlighted financials and other groups as possible sources of leadership beyond semiconductors, while reviewing consumer and health-care charts. He closed by urging traders to respect further downside, watch RSP, and wait for evidence before turning more bullish.
