Active Investing Edge Mentoring for November 11, 2026
TITLE: Pivot Reversals, Bond Headwinds, Semiconductor Leadership, and Industrial Setups (11-11-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff demonstrated how to frame an ES rebound using the prior-day high, pivot, and opening range, then illustrated a Real Motion divergence reversal across two- and five-minute charts. He explained that price reclaiming a moving average is not enough by itself: momentum, VWAP, support, and a plausible stop help distinguish a developing setup from a failed breakout, while position sizing or waiting for a pullback manages risk. Geoff’s broader base case remained bullish after the market held a key support zone, but he cautioned that the indexes were already extended and faced inflation data and bond-market pressure. He noted that TLT’s decline had weighed on stocks and that a bond breakdown could renew that pressure. Semiconductor strength, including SMH and AMD, offered potential setups, though he emphasized confirmation and defined risk. Geoff also assessed NVIDIA’s controversy-related uncertainty, Rocket Lab’s emerging reversal, USO’s resistance, and selected industrial charts, favoring patience where entries or stops were unclear.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] ES Pivot Reversal and Real Motion: Geoff walks through the ES opening-range reaction and shows how a Real Motion divergence, VWAP, and moving-average behavior can support a reversal setup. He stresses anticipating pullbacks, defining stops, and avoiding the temptation to chase.
- [00:14:32] Building a Market Base Case: Geoff uses the pivot, prior-day high, and opening range to assess whether the rebound remains intact. He explains how a base case guides disciplined trades, while an already-strong index move and upcoming PPI argue against assuming unlimited upside.
- [00:22:00] Bond Signals and Stock Pressure: Geoff compares TLT with stocks and explains how bond weakness had acted as a headwind. He assesses Real Motion and resistance on the bond chart, cautioning that a break below support could pressure equities and that confirmation matters.
- [00:29:00] Tech Leadership and Stock Setups: Geoff reviews broad participation, SMH, CoreWeave, and individual technology names, then discusses risk levels and potential entries in AMD and other candidates. He favors setups with clear support and stops over buying simply because a stock is rising.
- [00:41:43] Semiconductor Caution and NVIDIA Risk: Geoff revisits AMD and other technology stocks, distinguishing promising price action from entries with weak indicators or unclear stops. In response to a question, he outlines NVIDIA’s leadership-related uncertainty and explains why a long-term thesis still carries substantial event risk.
- [00:58:33] Rocket Lab and Sector Rotation: Geoff identifies a possible Real Motion divergence and improving chart structure in Rocket Lab, while waiting for stronger confirmation and a workable stop. He also checks defensive healthcare names and explains why Merck remains a stand-aside chart.
- [01:11:35] USO Levels and Industrial Candidates: Geoff treats USO’s range and resistance near 145–152 as key context, then examines XLI and constituent charts. He identifies candidates including Fastenal, Veralto, and Deere, but emphasizes confirming earnings, entries, and support before acting.
- [01:26:48] Closing Market Read and Risk Review: Geoff closes with a cautious, potentially choppy market outlook amid rising crude, bond-related headwinds, and pending inflation data. He notes SMH’s recovery and QQQ’s move above its 200-day average, while urging controlled risk and more confirmation in AMD and Micron.
