Active Investing Edge Mentoring for November 13, 2026

November 13, 2026

Active Investing Edge

By Geoff Bysshe

TITLE: Inflation Risks, Bond Weakness, and Nvidia’s Test for Stocks and Semiconductors (11-13-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff assessed a tense market backdrop after a light headline inflation reading failed to ease concern: he noted that underlying PPI details were hotter, while TLT continued to weaken. He treated bond weakness and crude strength as warnings even as equities initially held up, and mapped important support and resistance in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and equal-weight RSP. Geoff focused on NVIDIA as a market narrative driver, identifying its low as a potential tradable bottom only if it held, while stressing that failure could pressure the broader semiconductor group. In SMH, he saw a bearish-flag risk beneath key levels and advised watching the prior low and 10- and 200-day averages. Geoff also tracked VIX, crude, and bonds for confirmation of any stock-market reversal. His tactical conclusion was to wait for defensible support, improving price action, and confirmation before taking risk; he cautioned against buying a new low, particularly ahead of the weekend.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Bonds, Inflation, and Crude: Geoff compared the market’s reaction to inflation with continued weakness in TLT and strength in crude. He viewed those cross-market signals as a caution, even while equities initially resisted the pressure.
  2. [00:12:08] Index Levels and Support: Geoff mapped key zones in SPY, QQQ, and RSP, emphasizing the importance of yesterday’s low and nearby moving averages. He framed consolidation or a confirmed break as more useful than guessing at a top.
  3. [00:17:19] NVIDIA’s Market Test: Geoff explained why NVIDIA was central to the market narrative and distinguished stock-price risk from the industry’s fundamentals. He identified the stock’s low and pivot area as levels to monitor, not reasons to assume a recovery.
  4. [00:27:19] Semiconductors at a Decision Point: Geoff assessed SMH’s weakness beneath important levels and described the risk of a bearish flag if support failed. He compared the setup with AMD and other chip-related names, stressing that a rally alone would not repair the larger trend.
  5. [00:42:15] Opening Ranges and Market Risk: Geoff evaluated sector performance and VIX as the indexes weakened, while explaining why a straight decline may not yet establish reliable support. He favored patience for an opening-range reversal or another defensible low.
  6. [00:54:20] Relative Strength Beyond Technology: Geoff reviewed sectors and individual names, including financials, healthcare, Cisco, and Humana, to find stocks holding up better than technology. He treated relative strength as a possible source of opportunity only if the broader market stabilized.
  7. [01:11:36] Intermarket Confirmation and Trade Plans: Geoff revisited the interaction among equities, TLT, crude, NVIDIA, SMH, and VIX to explain prior turning points and what might confirm a new low. He laid out conditions for a cautious market entry and separated day trades from swing positions.
  8. [01:27:06] Selective Setups and Weekend Caution: Geoff highlighted RSP and stronger individual stocks as possible candidates if the market reversed, while noting the risks of Friday positions and uncertain weekend narratives. He closed by advising traders to avoid buying a new low and let further weakness play out.

About the author

+ posts