Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 29, 2026
TITLE: Choppy Markets, Crude and Bond Signals, and Semiconductor Breakout Setups (09-29-2026)
VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)
Geoff reviewed the prior session’s price action to show how SPY, QQQ, USO, TLT, RSP, and SMH can function as an intermarket dashboard. He explained that aligned signals can support a trend-day expectation, while conflicting behavior often argues for chop and makes reversals at key support or resistance more relevant. He described buying a QQQ dip that failed, then shorting a breakdown with a defined support target, and later buying a rebound when crude oil rolled over; he stressed that the short was a tactical day trade, not a change in his longer-term view. For the current session, Geoff expected limited trend potential amid numerous Fed speakers and identified prior-day ranges, SMH near 590, and crude’s resistance as important context. He discussed cautious upside participation, Micron’s upcoming earnings, and setups in AMD, NVIDIA, Bloom Energy, Microsoft, and other names, emphasizing confirmation, stops, and adapting when price action diverges from the base case.
SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:
- [00:00:00] The Intermarket Dashboard: Geoff introduced SPY, QQQ, USO, TLT, RSP, and SMH as a practical market dashboard. He explained that aligned signals can indicate trend potential, while disagreement among markets cautions against expecting breakouts to follow through.
- [00:12:09] Reviewing the Prior Day’s Trades: Geoff reconstructed his failed QQQ dip-buy and subsequent breakdown short, with support levels defining the target and risk. He then explained how crude’s reversal and stocks’ response helped him recognize a possible rebound in an otherwise choppy session.
- [00:31:21] Today’s Outlook and Key Levels: Geoff expected Fed speakers to make the session difficult to forecast and said the indexes needed to clear prior ranges for a stronger directional signal. He outlined downside support, SMH near 590, crude resistance, and cautious conditions for upside trades.
- [00:49:32] Semiconductor and Individual Stock Setups: Geoff reviewed AMD and NVIDIA as technically strong semiconductor names ahead of Micron earnings, while noting how disappointing news could affect the group. He also assessed Bloom Energy, Okta, and Microsoft, tying entries to confirmation and clearly defined stops.
- [01:08:31] Scanning Stocks Beyond the Indexes: Geoff surveyed names including GE Vernova, Broadcom, Robinhood, Apple, and data-center stocks, then examined semiconductor breadth as SMH moved higher without broad index confirmation. His takeaway was to favor stocks showing independent strength while remaining wary of a weak market backdrop.
- [01:26:55] MUFG, Robinhood, and Palantir: In response to stock questions, Geoff described weakness and a potential 50-day moving-average risk in MUFG, while preferring to wait for Robinhood above 120 and stronger confirmation. He viewed Palantir’s retracement as potentially constructive but highlighted its nearby stop risk.
- [01:33:03] Bloom Energy and the Session Wrap: Geoff returned to the dashboard, reiterated the risk of chop around Fed commentary, and updated Bloom Energy’s breakout plan after it cleared 300. He outlined an intraday stop below 290 and a tighter swing stop near 284, then looked ahead to Micron’s report.
