Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 30, 2026

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TITLE: PCE, Weak Bonds, and Narrow Technology Leadership Shape Plans Around Micron Earnings (09-30-2026)

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VIDEO SUMMARY: (FIRST POV Geoff)

Geoff assessed a modestly bullish stock reaction to softer-than-expected PCE inflation, while noting that weaker growth and jobs data and an unresponsive, sliding TLT signaled persistent bond-market pressure. He explained how he tracks cap-weighted indexes, crude oil, long bonds, SMH, and broader measures such as RSP and IWM to detect shifts in the market narrative. With semiconductors leading but participation narrow, Geoff treated Micron’s earnings reaction—not simply its reported numbers—as a key test for technology shares. He outlined conditional setups in the Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, and SMH, stressing confirmation across markets, defined support and stops, and caution ahead of earnings. He also reviewed seasonal context and sector rotation, distinguishing orderly corrections from broad breakdowns. In individual stocks, Geoff discussed selective opportunities among megacap technology names and semiconductor-related shares, while emphasizing patience, risk control, and the possibility that weak bonds could constrain any rally.

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SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

1. [00:00:00] PCE, Bonds, and Intermarket Signals: Geoff explains why stocks’ positive response to softer PCE contrasted with TLT’s weakness, and how crude, bonds, cap-weighted indexes, RSP, and IWM help reveal the market narrative. He views the bond divergence as a warning, not a standalone trade signal.
2. [00:16:21] Semiconductors and the Micron Test: Geoff identifies SMH as the leading group but notes narrow participation and weak bonds. He lays out how Micron’s earnings reaction could affect technology leadership, and uses SMH, TLT, QQQ, and IWM levels to frame conditional market expectations.
3. [00:31:27] Seasonality, Breadth, and Sector Rotation: Geoff weighs seasonal optimism against weak equal-weight performance and bond pressure, then reviews sector behavior including XLI, IBB, XLV, XLF, and KRE. He explains why resilient groups can signal an orderly correction, while warning that leadership remains narrow.
4. [00:49:58] Megacap Technology Setups and Risk: Geoff examines strength in Microsoft and Google alongside conditional plans for Apple, Amazon, Meta, and other megacap names. He focuses on confirmation, entry levels, and protective stops, while keeping Micron’s upcoming report and technology-sector risk in view.
5. [01:16:11] Semiconductor and Selective Stock Trades: Geoff reviews Intel, Micron, ARM, NVIDIA, and other semiconductor or technology setups, distinguishing stronger breakout patterns from charts he would avoid. He also discusses selected software, space, and satellite names, emphasizing that entries need manageable risk and follow-through.
6. [01:32:08] Closing Market Plan and Patience: Geoff returns to the indexes as QQQ strength lacks confirmation from SMH and TLT remains weak. He cautions against expecting a trend day into Micron earnings, considers upcoming employment data, and closes by urging patience and confirmation before chasing upside.