The bullets and video were done by Geoff Bysshe this week.

Risk On

• Seasonality. November is the to first or second most bullish month in most sectors and the market indexes. (+)
• Long-term index trends as depicted by the weekly charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM are strong, but there is short-term concern (see “Price Trends” in Risk-Off). (+)

Risk Off

• Rates have risen dramatically in the last two weeks in everything that’s longer than 6 months in duration. Look at the blue line vs the read line in the yield curve here. (-)
• Intermediate to long-term rates ETF (IEF) is sitting at its 200-day MA and real motion suggests a break will continue lower. The Corporate Bonds (LQD) and Total Bond (BND) ETFs are in similar patterns. (-)
• Price Trends: Daily charts of our 4 key stock indexes have warning signs in all buy the QQQ. These include, weekly closes under prior week’s low, weakness under the 10-day MA, and bearish Real Motion patterns (all explained further in the video). (-)
• Volume patterns are bearish in IWM and DIA with 4 distribution days in each. (-)
• Sector breath was negative last week. All but one (XLY) of the S&P 500 sectors closed down over the last 5 days. SMH was the only sector on our expanded list of sectors that was up and only because of a strong day on Friday. XLU, the leading index turned negative last week (see more in the video).(-)
• New High/Low ratios are showing signs of rolling over. Watch out if this gets weaker. (-)
• Last week’s weakness in equites was true globally.(-)

Neutral

• It’s a big week for earning reports this week (=)
• The Risk Gauges Gauge remain in neutral territory. Gold’s strength is a negative factor weighing against the strength in stocks and high yield debt vs. long-term treasuries. See the ratios here.
• Advance/Decline breath is trending down, but not oversold. (=)
• Keep an eye on the VIX readings. They’re neutral now, but the ratio is weakening and both index time frames have bullish charts (which suggests increasing fear), that look like they could jump quickly if they break higher. (=)
• Agricultural commodities (DBA) continued to slide and Real Motion remains bearish.(=)
• Gold’s strong long-term trend higher continued.(=)
• The Dollar’s strong multi-week trend higher continued.(=)
• Bitcoin pulled back, but it’s weekly chart is poised for a breakout if it continues higher. (=)