Big View Bullets for 11/10/2024

November 10, 2024

Big View Analysis

By Keith Schneider


Big View Bullets as of Nov. 10th

Risk On

  • All four indexes exploded to new highs after the election and looks to be entering parabolic phases. Market action seems very bullish though some caution is warranted as both Real Motion and Price are outside their upper bands and showing an overbought condition. (+)
  • Volume patterns are lagging a bit behind the market price action though still strong with more accumulation days than distribution days. (+)
  • With the exception of Gold Miners, all sectors were up on the week led by regional banks and consumer discretionary, both quite bullish for the market and a positive sign for the U.S. economy. (+)
  • There was considerable strength in small caps post election while foreign equities got hit hard showing the initial reaction to the Trump election, at least at first blush, was extremely positive.(+)
  • Market internals that were looking marginal before the election are confirming the new all-time highs in the market, a bullish indication. Same for Nasdaq and S&P. (+)
  • The NYSE New High New Low ratio flipped positive, confirming price action. (+)
  • Both value and growth are in bull phases, though growth is now significantly outperforming value on both short and longer time frames. (+)
  • The Modern Family, one of the better indicators for looking at the internal strength of the U.S. economy, is lagging a bit with only four out of the six members on new 2024 highs. Semiconductors are still lagging their July highs and Granny Retail (XRT) still needs to clear $80 for a full confirmation. (+)
  • Bitcoin hit new all-time highs post election, with a lot of speculative inflows into the crypto and the new ETFs. (+)
  • The U.S. dollar jumped after the election which seems like a positive for U.S. equities. (+)
  • The FED raised interest rates by 0.25 basis points. After an initial jump after the election, rates settled-in unchanged on the week. (=)

Neutral

  • Volatility remains elevated above its lowest levels in mid-May through July and look a little oversold on a short-term reading. (=)
  • The number of stocks above their key moving averages is giving a neutral to negative read on balance across the Nasdaq, the S&P, and the Dow on all time frames. (=)
  • Emerging markets snf larger cap foreign equities are severely lagging U.S. markets. Both EEM and EFA closed under key moving averages. (=)
  • Gold is mean reverting from its recent new all-time highs at the end of October. Needs to hold its 50-Day Moving Average to keep its trend intact. (=)

Risk Off

  • (none)