Summary: Mostly bullish indications from Big View with the exception of the risk gauges weakening, inflationary pressure persisting with NASDAQ100/Tech lagging.

Risk On

• S&P and Dow made new all-time highs this week, indicating further bullish action. Both are not overbought on both price and real motion together.(+)
• Significant improvement in volume over the last two weeks with volume action confirming the new all-time highs. (+)
• 12 out of the 14 sectors were positive over the last 5 trading days led by retail and homebuilders which was helped by the drop in interest rates. (+)
• Alternative energy were the strongest performers over the last five trading day while fossil fuels actually sold off. (+)
• Market internals, viewed through the McClellan Oscillator is positive and confirmed price action for the NYSE and Nasdaq and the cumulative advance/decline line for the NYSE also hit new all-time highs. (+)
• The 52-week new high new low ratio improved for both the NASDAQ composite and the S&P. (+)but could be overbought shortly
• Volatility indexes are giving up some levels of pessimism and closed on new lows since the massive August spike. (+)
• The average of stocks above their key moving average (Color Charts) looks overall positive with the exception of the S&P which looks a little more muted. (+)
• The modern family collectively improved with Semiconductors and Biotech regaining their 200-Day Moving Averages while Retail closed very strong and Transports closed on new all-time highs. (+)
• Foreign equities still continue to lag U.S. equities by a wide margin. Although, on a positive basis, Emerging markets tested their 200-Day Moving Average and bounced. (+)
• Value continues to outperform growth and while both closed on new highs.(+)
• Bitcoins and Bananas went ballistic this week highlilghting the current speculative condition of the market that could persist and until that breaks, its bullish. (+)
• Despite the highs in soft commodities that could impact the consumer, the long-bond and interest rates across the yield curve eased which under most cases should be good for equities which is what we saw in the markets. (+)
• Regarding seasonal patterns, bitcoin is very strong in what is considered its strongest seasonal period while the Dollar could be underpressure from its seasonal trends and is already in overbought condition.

Neutral

• The percentage of stocks over their key moving averages show a potential overbought situation that could be subject to mean reversion. (=)
• Risk gauges are a weak-neutral due to the relative strength of the long-bond (TLT) outperforming the S&P. (=)
• As we suggested last week, Gold was a little oversold. By the end of the week it closed below its 50-Day Moving Average in a weak warning phase. Maybe geopolitical pressures are easing. (=)
• The Dollar backed off extremely overbought conditions. The equities market seems disconnected with price action in the Dollar. (=)
• Inflationary pressures persist with soft commodities closing at decade highs. (=)
• The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) continues to lag the S&P 500 (SPY) and if the market corrects from here it should be first to fail. (=)