Big View Bullets for 12/08/2024

December 8, 2024

Big View Analysis

By Keith Schneider


Big View Bullets as of Dec. 8th

Summary: Mostly bullish indications from Big View continue with the S&P and Nasdaq pushing to new highs, though some more neutral readings creeping up with inflationary concerns persisting.

Risk On

  • More of a mixed picture in the indexes with the Dow and Small caps closing marginally lower, though S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to new all-time highs with Nasdaq reasserting itself up +2.17%. (+)
  • Volume patterns were overwhelmingly positive in favor of accumulation days with the exception of IWM. S&P 500 has had 4 accumulation days to 0 distribution days in the last 10 days. (+)
  • Strong moves for European equities with Italy, Sweden, Germany all up over 3.5% on the week. (+)
  • Volatility continued to come off a little and reached its lowest levels since early July. (+)
  • Growth surged to new highs while value was actually down on the week, flipping the ratio back to the levels we last saw in July when the trend had its last major flip. (+)
  • Developed markets continued to marginally outperform emerging markets, though both are catching up relative to the SPY after underperforming for most of the last two months. (+)
  • Bitcoin finally nudged that $100k mark with the new presidential administration seen as more friendly to the crypto space. (+)
  • Modern Family remains strong with 4 of the 6 in bullish phases. IBB and SMH are the two holdouts, though semiconductors flirted with flipping back to bullish this week. (+)
  • The percentage of stocks over their key moving average came off a little, though remains strong overall. (+)
  • The color charts (average of stocks over key moving averages) looks quite positive for the Nasdaq and small caps with a mixed picture in the S&P. (+)

Neutral 

  • Sectors were far more mixed and the trends were shuffled with Transportation, Utilities, Energy and Homebuilders each down over -3% while Consumer Discretionary and Technology both up over +3%. (=)
  • Risk gauges are a neutral at 60%, mostly due to strength in treasuries. (=)
  • McClellan Oscillator pulled off its recent highs this week even as the markets pushed to new highs, showing some market breadth weakening, likely from strength in megacaps while small caps were down on the week. (=)
  • Soft commodities (DBA) soared past its multiple highs from earlier in the year in April and September indicating inflationary pressures persist. (=)
  • Demand for treasuries continues with TLT outperforming the SPY over the short-run. (=)
  • Oil slumped down to the lower end of its trading range for the last two months, perhaps signally lower concern about geopolitical tensions. (=)