August Trading Not for the Faint of Heart

Mish Schneider | August 6, 2025

August is a tough month to trade. 

There has been seasonal weakness over the past 35 years. 

Liquidity is diminished and the volume is thin. 

Volatility can rise. 

Tax loss selling and rebalancing often occurs among institutions ahead of the …


Is the Market Only as Strong as its Weakest Link?

Mish Schneider | August 4, 2025

The rally to start the week is quite promising that once again, Friday’s selloff was an overreaction to headlines. 

Yet, for the sake of consistency, the July 6-month calendar range high remains elusive to the strongest sector Semiconductors SMH.  

However, …


Market Correction and the July 6-Month Calendar Range

Mish Schneider | August 3, 2025

On July 13th I wrote a Daily on This Week the July 6-month Calendar Range Resets.  

To refresh 

The July Pattern
The Six-Month Calendar Ranges  

  • Provides directional bias for the next 6 to 12 months.  
  • January and July divide the

  • Vanity Trade: Apparel Adapting to Shifting Body Sizes

    Mish Schneider | July 30, 2025

    As GLP1 weight-loss drug adoption grows 12–15% of U.S. adults are currently or planning to use them—food, wellness and fashion brands are pivoting to address new consumer priorities. 

    Today, we are going to focus on fashion brands. 

    Retailers looking to …


    Why the Market Is at Record Highs

    Mish Schneider | July 28, 2025

    Both SPY and QQQ continue to drive this market higher.

    Note how far above the price is from their respective July 6-month calendar range highs (horizontal green line).

    Also note the momentum as indicated by Real Motion.

    SPY has a …


    Energy ETF in Focus

    Mish Schneider | July 24, 2025

    Here are the top 10 holdings of the XLE ETF as of July 24, 2025, along with their respective weightings:  

    The XLE ETF itself is recognized for providing exposure to dividend-paying energy stocks. The fund currently offers a dividend yield …


    The Vanity Trade or New “Thinner” Consumer

    Mish Schneider | July 23, 2025

    I hope by now, my readers and followers know how excited I am about the future of the “vanity” trade, so named because of the diet drugs, folks using them more and more, and the domino effect of the buying …


    Natural Gas Prices-How Low Can They Go?

    Mish Schneider | July 21, 2025

    I did this research using AI when I asked the question: 

    Can natural gas producers afford to extract gas if price is below 4? 

    Whether natural gas producers can afford to extract gas below $4/MMBtu depends on: 

    • Breakeven Price: Most

    Small Caps and Semiconductors Share This

    Mish Schneider | July 20, 2025

    Last week I wrote about the calendar ranges now that they have reset in July. 

    After an epic week where only a few sectors plus the S&P 500 and NASDAQ shone, it turns out that it’s the calendar range that …


    Latest on Oil Futures and the USO ETF

    Mish Schneider | July 16, 2025

    Now that the calendar range for July is set, let’s look at oil futures. 

    First, there is the chart of USO the ETF for the US oil fund for those who prefer to trade the ETFs rather than commodities. 

    USO …