Post PCE-What is the Pre-PCE Market Saying?

Mish Schneider | June 29, 2022

Written by Mish

Stocks are primarily unchanged or trading slightly higher as pressures from rising food and energy prices persist.

As I reiterate, among the war's immediate external financial implications are disruptions in global supply lines for cereals, fertilizers, metals, …


The Textbook Definition of Recession

Mish Schneider | June 28, 2022

Written by Mish

Although GDP growth is a crucial measure of economic activity, it is not the most significant factor to consider when predicting future stock market returns since it is a lagging economic indicator.

Yet, it seems like everyone …


What Can We Expect From Oil Prices?

Mish Schneider | June 27, 2022

Written by Mish

U.S. crude oil continues to rise after a pullback late last week to around the mid-$90s per barrel.

However, the price is hitting short-term resistance around $109-$110 for the time being.

The USO oil ETF over the …


Technical Bounce or New Bullish Breakout?

Mish Schneider | June 26, 2022

Written by Mish

I woke up to headlines on my Twitter feed Friday morning:

"POWELL: US HAS A VERY STRONG, WELL RECOVERED ECONOMY."

Jerome Powell said a soft landing is still "possible," but conceded recession was also a possibility in …


Are We Heading Towards Recession?

Mish Schneider | June 22, 2022

Written by Mish

To be clear, the economy is not currently in recession. There remains roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings and a robust labor market, although that might be changing.

Furthermore, fixed business investment is still strong and continues …


Demand Destruction as Seen in the Transportation Sector

Mish Schneider | June 21, 2022

Written by Mish

Over the weekend I wrote that “Looking at the SPY chart, we could be setting up for a mean reversion trade (bear market bounce that takes SPY back to 380.)”

I went on to write, “Granny Retail …


When the Trend is Not Your Friend-A Trading Plan

Mish Schneider | June 19, 2022

Written by Mish

Currently, if we look at the S&P 500 and the Retail Sector through XRT, our foregone conclusion is that for the most part, equities are a distraction.

The obvious trend is down, but is it that so …


Can the Fed Control Inflation with Higher Rates?

Mish Schneider | June 15, 2022

Written by Mish

So, the whole U.S. watched the Fed raise rates by .75 bps today.

And, with all the news coverage and analysis, yours truly has tried to warn you all that whether the Fed raised by 50 or …


For Signs of a Relief Rally, Watch the S&P 500 v. Retail

Mish Schneider | June 14, 2022

Written by Mish

Pretty much everyone has turned into a bear.

And no surprise really.

Personally, I think the bears are a bit late to the party. Nonetheless, the inflation concerns are real. The QT concerns are real. Yet the …


Can the Consumer Save the Economy?

Mish Schneider | June 13, 2022

Written by Mish

Last week I did a part educational, part actionable webinar for the virtual money show (link below).

My theme was and always is, the Economic Modern Family.

On the weekly charts, some of the members have broken …