October 14, 2022
Cryptocurrencies: Weekly Update
October has been fairly boring for cryptocurrency prices so far, which has actually been a good thing. While volatility continues to increase amongst other risk assets amidst growing global economic stress, the cryptocurrency market has been flat.
Bitcoin is down about -1.5% and Ethereum -2.7% since the beginning of October, nearly identical performances to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite. We’ve been seeing some point a finger at the weakness in several global currencies as the reason for recent outperformance in cryptocurrency prices, but don’t take the relative strength for granted.
To be completely candid, this may be the final opportunity to seek safety for any cryptocurrency positions you may have before crypto prices get another haircut.
Bitcoin’s weekly trend is still right on the edge in regards to the long-term trend that is finally at its breaking point with this week’s candle. BTC continues to trade sideways at the lower end of its long-term range, and has given up the $20,000 price level once again as its now hovering with a wall of support at $19,000 once again.
On the daily timeframe BTC has gone flat after rejecting the 50-day moving average once again. On the other hand momentum does remain surprisingly strong according to RealMotion which has stayed above both key moving averages even during the selloff last week. Support remains at $19,000 and then at $18,500, with resistance still clear at the 50-dma and $20,000.
With cryptocurrency prices coiling and compressing as much as they have been for the past several months it is likely that we’ll still get another significant breakout before the year comes to an end. Until there is more clarity on whether this compression will break up or down, its probably best to remain defensive.
Coinbase (COIN) is down more than -70% year-to-date but it is definitely still a name worth watching. The big news this week in the crypto industry was that Coinbase will be partnering with Google to provide cryptocurrency payment services for Google Cloud users as well as other tech integrations beginning in 2023.
We’ve written recently about tracking specific cryptocurrencies like LINK, MATIC, and UNI because of attributes like innovative tech, major partnerships, and large user bases, so it only makes sense to put a spotlight on Coinbase.
As a long-term play Coinbase makes about as much if not more sense than nearly any cryptocurrency besides maybe Bitcoin or Ethereum if you’re simply looking for exposure to the growing crypto/blockchain industry. Coinbase is the 2nd largest crypto exchange in the world by volume behind only Binance, but with Coinbase recently receiving approval to opperate in Singapore we’re seeing signs of a global expansion even in an extended bear market.
Cryptocurrencies have been propped up against the stock market the last several weeks and that is likely because it remains one of the few industries that continues to build and grow even amongst major economic stress. Coinbase is creating new revenue streams with their partnerships with legacy companies like Google while also emboldening existing ones such as expanding their retail operations. Coinbase’ next earnings report is right around the corner on November 3 and we may be in for a positive surprise.
Looking at the chart of Coinbase’ stock also shows a stronger long-term trend than most cryptocurrencies, appearing to have potentially bottomed all the way back in early May while Bitcoin is still making new lows in just the past month.
COIN is currently rangebound between $61 and $75 but has seen steady improvement for several months as well as strong momentum which has been above the 50-day moving average since mid-July according to RealMotion.
Look for Coinbase to continue its positive consolidation, especially with recent news making the company’s legitimacy undeniable.