Miners, Altcoins, and the World Cup

November 8, 2022

Cryptocurrencies: Weekly Update

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Cryptocurrencies are holding up well so far on bullish news after breaking out above key moving averages the past 2 weeks. This continues to mark a steady outperformance of crypto over stocks for the past several weeks.

Bitcoin remained above $20,000 for most of the past week even after failing to clear $21,000 on its first attempt. Bitcoin is currently around $20,700 again, and Ethereum looks similar to BTC forming a flagging pattern, but while ETH is making higher highs it is actually now bumping into resistance at the 200-day moving average while BTC is nowhere near its own.

In addition, our CryptoPulseQuant trading system locked in a 40% gain in MATIC when it hit its first target over the weekend. 

An onslaught of positive industry news as we hit mid-terms is likely the main reason we’ve seen crypto outperform stocks over the past several weeks. Just this past week we’ve been told that Fidelity is preparing to launch a retail service for trading Bitcoin and Ethereum with no fees, JPMorgan executed its first DeFi trade, and the DOGE-loving Elon Musk finally completed his acquisition of Twitter.

However, there has been one specific part of the broader crypto industry that has not been sharing the same bullish news as the rest of them… Miners.

One of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies, Core Scientific (CORZ) imploded overnight last week after revealing that they are likely to file for bankruptcy. This comes after news in June that the company had liquidated the entirety of its Bitcoin holdings. The problem now is that energy costs have increased, but the BTC earned and its convertible value have decreased thanks to the bear market.

A deeper examination of the situation reveals that the most likely cause for Core Scientific’s downfall was poor planning, as they financed their mining rigs during the 2020-2021 bull market thinking they’d be able to pay off the machines quickly in anticipation of solid cash flow. Other publicly traded mining companies may be susceptible to the same risks now that their incoming BTC from mining activities has gotten a haircut with the market.

Argo Blockchain (ARBK) and Iris Energy (IREN) are just two other companies that have revealed they’re undergoing the same woes as Core Scientific, which begs the question, which mining stocks are actually worth trading?

What seems to be the safest bet in the space are the same names that really familiarized everyone with the mining space, Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT). However, another interesting name to keep an eye on is CleanSpark (CLSK).

CleanSpark has been continually purchasing more mining rigs throughout the duration of the bear market and looks to have just bought another swath of machines from Argo this last week. On top of that, CleanSpark is buying these machines at a discount thanks to the extended pain suffered by the broader mining industry.

For the foreseeable future, it may be a little rocky trying to trade mining stocks, but as long as altcoins continue to pop on good news we should still have plenty to be happy about. 

Bitcoin is pulling back once again from its recent breakout after hitting resistance near $21,500 resistance, but could easily bounce with a bit of encouragement from stocks especially if we see the US Dollar continue to drop.

As so many other major cryptocurrencies are currently trading right above/below their key 200-day moving averages, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the price of BTC do the same. There is still plenty of room for BTC to make a quick run to the $24,500 range high, but it still lacks the excitement that we’re seeing for several other major coins.

Our Trend Strength Indicator (TSI) is now showing 9 of the top 10 coins with positive TSI scores once again, a strong indication for the altcoin market especially as BTC sits near the bottom of our list.

MATIC has been ripping higher leaving everything else behind even on Monday as both cryptocurrencies and stocks chop around. We’ve been covering all of the major news regarding MATIC’s rise to glory in 2022 and it just seems to keep going. Most recently, Meta/Facebook partnered with MATIC as their chosen blockchain to support NFTs on Instagram, JPMorgan made their first ever Defi transaction with MATIC, and now the company behind the coin is preparing a tour of India to spread awareness of their project.

Our CryptoPulse Quant model has so far locked in a 40% profit target on our current position and looks likely to reach our second target at its current pace. The CPQ strategy similarly locked in nearly 2x profits during the last countertrend rally in June which saw MATIC lead the entire market.

MATIC is up more than 11% as of the time of writing, and the only resistance level anywhere in sight is the 50-week moving average, which has already been overcome to start the week.

Another coin leading our list of top coins by trend strength is Litecoin, an unlikely surprise. Similarly to MATIC, LTC has been pumping on positive news such as MoneyGram’s new service that allows transacting and storage of LTC which subsequently saw the coin pump 15%. The blockchain has also seen continued adoption throughout the bear market, with LTC Foundation sharing that there have been 45 million new LTC addresses created in the past 11 months.

LTC is bumping into resistance near $73, but may likely just be taking a brief pause after getting overbought on such a quick rally.

Another coin that has been outpacing the market and has the ability to continue outperforming is Chiliz (CHZ). The CHZ network specializes in working with sports clubs to provide fan tokens and Web3 experiences for their followers. Having already made headlines for partnering with some of the biggest football clubs in the world such as FC Barcelona and Juventus, it is no surprise that the CHZ coin has been pumping in anticipation of the beginning of the World Cup starting on November 20.

CHZ opened the week slightly above its key long-term target of around $0.28 and is likely to continue breaking higher with a close above this level especially as the coin is likely to be broadcast worldwide in the latter half of this month.

One last token to keep a lookout for during the World Cup will be Algorand (ALGO) which is the official blockchain partner of the tournament.

ALGO has managed to reach the top of its range around $0.42 but looks likely to push higher and test resistance at $0.50. The project has seen continued growth and adoption throughout the bear market thanks to strategic partnerships with several members of the international community. ALGO is developing a retail wallet for mobile banking in the Philippines, working as the blockchain partner for the country of El Salvador, and collaborating with Italy’s central bank on a potential central bank digital currency.

It’s unclear how long the altcoin rally can continue, but several of the top coins are already reaching and testing their long-term range highs. If the rally is to persist, it's best to only focus on the top coins that keep building regardless of the market environment. Our quant strategy is now back to a positive YTD performance on our most recent trades and looks to continue pushing higher with all of the positive industry news and a weakening dollar.

Make sure to take profits if you haven’t already, because the crypto market can always break down just as quickly as it broke out these past few weeks.