Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 23, 2026

Geoff Bysshe | September 23, 2026

Bonds, Crude Oil, and Stocks: Breakout Tests and Risk Plans

VIDEO SUMMARY:

Geoff framed the session around a sharp bond selloff and its implications for stocks, crude oil, and risk. He noted that the 10-year Treasury’s decline lacked a convincing close-and-continue pattern and argued that price action mattered more than identifying a single news cause. With crude oil rising, bonds weak, and RSP lagging QQQ, he urged caution even as futures divergences and a gap-down recovery offered possible bullish setups. Geoff explained how he assessed VWAP, the 200-period moving average, opening-range levels, and support before deciding whether a move had follow-through. He reviewed sector leadership and weakness, then detailed trade plans for Palantir, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck, including entry zones, inflection points, stops, and targets. As bonds and crude weakened the intraday outlook, Geoff tightened risk, exited futures, and emphasized patience. His concluding condition was that a rally would be more credible if crude and bonds stabilized without stocks selling off.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Bond Selloff and Market Warning: Geoff examined the sharp decline in bonds, the uncertain news backdrop, and weak breadth in RSP relative to QQQ. He stressed that the bond chart and intermarket action argued against assuming stocks would bounce.
  2. [00:14:21] Gap-Down Setup and Leadership: Geoff assessed the gap-down through futures, VWAP, moving-average divergences, and opening-range behavior. He saw possible recovery signals but advised watching QQQ and semiconductors while treating narrow market leadership as a risk.
  3. [00:24:46] Sector Strength and Support Levels: Geoff compared energy, health care, semiconductors, transportation, and financials, noting which groups held up and where charts approached support. He used those relative-strength differences to prioritize watchlists rather than buy indiscriminately.
  4. [00:33:16] Google, Amazon, and Market Recovery: Geoff questioned whether data-center backlash explained weakness in Google and Amazon, focusing instead on their price action and support. He then revisited the indices, noting that the recovery still faced important moving-average resistance.
  5. [00:42:29] Palantir Entry and Risk Plan: Geoff laid out a Palantir trade framework around a buy zone, an inflection area, and a stop below support. He discussed the weekly consolidation and breakout, with a plan to protect gains near the $200 level.
  6. [00:51:31] Johnson & Johnson, Merck, and Moderna: Geoff reviewed potential setups in Johnson & Johnson and Merck, specifying entry areas and protective stops while considering their chart structures. He also noted Moderna’s strength but cautioned against chasing an already extended breakout.
  7. [01:06:01] Intraday Signals and Security Stocks: Geoff tracked changing futures, bond, and crude-oil signals as indices tested breakout levels, then reviewed security names including Palo Alto Networks. He weighed attractive charts against stop distance and deteriorating intermarket conditions.
  8. [01:18:56] Divergences, Patience, and Closing Risk: Geoff explained that a bullish divergence could remain valid through a pullback, so a brief move above the 200-period average was not enough to confirm a reversal. With crude rising and bonds falling, he favored patience and defined what would improve the outlook.