Active Investing Edge Mentoring for September 9, 2026

Geoff Bysshe | September 9, 2026

Rising Oil and Rates Test Large-Cap Rotation, Support Levels, And Opening Range Setups (09-09-2026)

VIDEO SUMMARY:

Geoff analyzed a market pressured by higher oil, elevated inflation data, rising global rates, and weak bonds. He explained that Saudi production constraints were accelerating crude’s move higher, while USO, TLT, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures pointed to a difficult open ahead of the next inflation report. Geoff emphasized watching whether the market held support near the 50-day moving averages and whether large-cap technology stocks could outperform declining breadth in RSP. He reviewed sectors including semiconductors, energy, financials, gold, utilities, consumer discretionary, and industrials, identifying both support zones and rollover risks. Geoff then demonstrated opening-range, VWAP, and risk-management frameworks using Intel, Meta, and Robinhood, stressing tight stops and measured position sizing. As the session developed, he characterized price action as choppy with a slight bullish bias, while warning that simultaneous weakness in bonds, oil strength, and breakdowns in QQQ, SPY, and SMH could signal renewed downside before the inflation release.

SESSION HIGHLIGHTS:

  1. [00:00:00] Oil, Rates, And The Market Open: Geoff connected Saudi supply constraints, elevated inflation, higher global rates, and weak bonds to the expected lower open. He outlined support near 7,500 and stressed waiting for early price action before deciding whether the decline represented a true breakdown.
  2. [00:12:00] Sector Support And Rollover Risks: Geoff reviewed IBB, XBI, energy ETFs, XLV, SMH, XLF, gold, utilities, consumer discretionary, and other sectors. He distinguished areas opening near support from vulnerable patterns, especially failed rallies and gaps through important moving averages.
  3. [00:27:35] Intermarket Signals After The Open: Geoff compared SPY, QQQ, RSP, TLT, VIX, USO, and major stocks as trading began. Oil's reversal and orderly equity action reduced immediate alarm, while divergences between large-cap technology and equal-weight stocks suggested a potentially choppy session.
  4. [00:40:45] Waiting For Confirmation And Relative Strength: Geoff assessed Deere, Apple, Meta, Tesla, semiconductors, and other stocks while observing that the market was mostly quiet. He emphasized inside days, support tests, and relative strength rather than forcing long trades ahead of the inflation report.
  5. [01:06:32] Opening Range And VWAP Trade Setups: Geoff demonstrated how to evaluate Robinhood, Intel, and Meta using opening-range reversals, VWAP transitions, prior lows, and ATR-based stops. He showed how slowing downside momentum could create defined-risk entries while preserving disciplined exits.
  6. [01:20:10] Large-Cap Rotation And Closing Risk Plan: Geoff concluded that the market had a choppy, slightly bullish bias while bonds held and large-cap stocks resisted the decline. He identified Meta, Apple, Intel, and possibly MU as watchlist candidates, while warning that synchronized afternoon breakdowns could worsen risk.