And so the month ends with the best first quarter performance since 1998. 1998 had drama for sure. The Russian ruble crisis resulted in a collapse of Long-term Capital Management (LTCM). In October 1998, the company was rescued, but only after the S&P 500 had collapsed 22% from its highs made in July of the same year. Since then, investors are no strangers to drama. To us, drama spells volatility. Volatility equals opportunity. Opportunity means profits for the educated, active investor. So, no worries on what may lie ahead. In parody to the words of the world's most interesting man, "Stay frosty my friends."
Dow (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY) Return over the fast moving average and doji day. Unless it fails Friday's low, positive. Subs: positive pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Here's where my eyes will be. Like the other indexes, had the possible new high reversal candle pattern. Unlike the other indexes, closed weak, failing to sustain over the fast moving average. Subs: Positive Pivots but unless it clears R1, under Friday's low, worrisome.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Second reason for pause. Along with the reversal pattern from new highs, Friday concludes with a bearish engulfing pattern. Subs: Pivots positive which means above Friday highs good, below Friday's low, concern
ETFS:
GLD Good comeback and stuck in no man's land. Subs: Another one to follow a range break either way.
XLF (Financials) A hammer candle which could like it was pushed higher since barely cleared the fast moving average. Subs: R1 15.86
IBB (Biotechnology) Can go either way since new weekly and monthly high close, but not on the daily. Must clear last week's high
SMH (Semiconductors) Best monthly close since 2004. Also, needs to clear last week's high
XRT (Retail) Day three of correction from the possible reversal pattern. Subs: Negative Pivots making this a definite concern until oversold conditions register
IYT (Transportation) Over Friday's high would be a good sign for this group.
IYR (Real Estate) Marginally closed above 62.00 which if holds is another good sign in this group
XLE (Energy) held the 200 DMA. Subs: Also cleared the 160 EMA so still in the tail swing.
OIH (Oil Services) Any sign of weakness and still a go to sector to hunt for shorts.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Unless it breaks 19.70, looking to buy dips
Longs: Nothing over 92% on the weekly RSI or with a slingshot pattern until those highs clear.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QIHU (Inside day and Should hold today's low clear 24.77)
CELG (3 days under the FTP. Must hold Friday low, clear Friday high)
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ACE (Must hold Friday low)
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
ALXN REGN (Biotech and Should hold Friday low)
JAZZ (Must hold Friday low)
PAY (Must hold Friday low)
LULU (Must hold Friday low)
JWN (Must hold Friday low)
TROW (Must hold Friday low)
DVN (Must clear R1 71.59 hold Friday low)
DFS (Must hold Friday low)
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
WSM (Must hold Friday low and clear R1 37.85)
NFLX (Not a Condition stock but in recovery inside day, needs to clear Friday high)
Shorts: For ETFs watch XME AGQ under S1. Positive Pivots on picks so must break Friday low and S1 and stay under the FTP
ANF
NSC
SINA
GES
Have a Great Sunday!