S&P 500 (SPY) like the Dow (DIA) took out their last swing highs and then closed well indeed, but backed off end of day just enough to keep the weaker longs cautious. NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) did not come close to their recent swing high, another reason for caution before we begin to holler-NEW HIGHs NEW HIGHs! The fast moving averages have served well to signal ensuing corrections. We continue to track those areas until the market clears it substantially.
Subs: Pivots Positive in all indexes. Watch recent highs in QQQ and IWM and the 10 DMA to hold in all 4.
ETFS:
GLD Test of the 200 DMA which is sort of moment of truth. It could do some work here, but still see either possibility here-a return over the 200 DMA or a great short opportunity.
XLF (Financials) Has to clear 16.01 recent high and hold Monday low
IBB (Biotechnology) Now has to clear 124.66 and hold the 10 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors)Still needs to clear 36.17 and hold Monday low.
XRT (Retail) After 3 day correction, tested but could not close above the fast moving average. 61.00 support area to hold, but now that it worked off overbought conditions, over today's high could get going.
IYT (Transportation) Want to see Friday's high hold now. Another one that needs to clear last swing high or enthusiasm will wane quickly.
IYR (Real Estate) 62.81 recent swing high to clear and 62.00 area to hold.
XLE (Energy) Continuing to bounce off of the 200 DMA. 71.15 ultimate support.
OIH (Oil Services) Tested the fast moving average and retreated which means any sign of weakness and still a go to sector to hunt for shorts.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day after huge green bar Friday. Can narrow the scope by following the way today's range breaks up or down
Longs: Continue to hesitate before recommending anything that made a new swing high and closed on its intraday low last couple of weeks. Also anything that has a daily or weekly RSI over 92.00. Category 3 featured in today's video.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GOOG Negative pivots and closed above. Max risk the FTP 643. Should clear today's high
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BID Must hold today's low. Like on strength or weakness
CLR Must hold 85.60 Good for reversal or breakout
FOSL Must hold 130.37. Good for reversal or breakout
LO Must hold 130.80 and prefer it take out today's high
COP Must hold 76.60 Good for reversal or breakout
QIHU Risk 23.85 Candidate for reversal or breakout over today's high
ALXN DOJI Narrow Range day. Good stop to under today's low
REGN 121.39 last swing high. 117.50 should hold
V Should hold 118.45 Good for reversal or breakout
CSTR Like to see 64.85 clear
LULU Inside day. Risk today's low. Candidate for reversal or breakout over today's high
TROW Reversal preferable with risk to 64.60
DFS DOJI 33.06 should hold
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
USG Narrow range day max risk 16.72 Must clear 17.58
SFLY Not a condition stock but in recovery phase. Oversold must hold 30.24 clear today's high
Shorts: All have negative pivots and should not clear R1
MOS Slightly negative pivots and should not clear R1 56.15. Under 54.00 see no leg down to 52.50 or lower. Day to Short-term Swing
NAV Pivots at 40.36 R1 41.02. Under 39.70 weak
AMZN Gapped lower and failed the 200 DMA. Negative pivots at 198.38 and must not clear R1 201.28. Could see 193 next. Day to mini
SODA bearish engulfing pattern. Cannot clear R1 today's high. 27.60 last year low
APKT Positive pivots must not clear today's high and break S1 and todays' low to see move back to 25.00 or lower
SWN Positive pivots must not clear today's high and break S1 and todays' low to see move back to 28.37 or lower
Goodnight!