Not much green, not even my beloved TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) as it was "everybody out of the pool." And, we wrote about those reversal patterns in the indexes from the highs enough to not be surprised or make our wallets hurt, but I can still be disappointed, right? But you know what they say about hope, fear and greed. So, we are mainly back to cash and suppose tomorrow pre-Holiday could be super quiet. The phase is still bullish meaning at this point, perm-a-bears may only look good for a couple of days.
S&P 500 (SPY) Subs: 2 days under the FTP with 138.65 last swing low support and move back over 140.37 R1 some sign of relief.
Dow (DIA) 129.71 last swing low and could take a trip back to the fast moving average.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Looks like correction in the leaders is really here. For now, rallies should be met with selling
Russell 2000 (IWM) 81.25 last swing low and landed on the 50 DMA. Subs 81.90 pivotal
ETFS:
GLD Subs: OR reversal failure preferable here but approaching oversold
XLF (Financials) Held 15.50 and back over 15.70 not too bad
IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared old high, made way then sold off holding the fast moving average
SMH (Semiconductors) Touched down on the 50 DMA. Expect sideways action in the near term
XRT (Retail) If this corrects to the 50 DMA, probably a great re entry point
IYT (Transportation) Caught the bounce and now over 94.54, could tear away from the rest of the pack. Under 93.50 would be troublesome
IYR (Real Estate) Closed under 62.00, but still like this group if that number clears
OIH (Oil Services) Approaching oversold with nothing all that exciting on the charts
XLE (Energy) 70.00 the 200 DMA still support
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day which means follow it over the range high and looking for it to hold the lows
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
PX If holds today's low and the FTP at 113.74, then needs to clear R1 114.19
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GOOG Negative pivots. Over 635 clears the pivots and over 639 clears R1.
ACE 72.78 to hold and 73.95 to clear (Condition 3)
CF Only 1 day under FTP Condition 1 that outperformed. Has to hold today's low
FOSL Only 1 day under FTP Conditon 1 that outperformed. Like to see it hold today's low clear today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
QCOR Inside day, neutral pivots, must hold today's low and clear today's high-reversal or breakout
EXPD Neutral pivots Condition 3 must hold today's low then reversal or breakout
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMGN (Not a condition) not oversold but like the sideways action. Over today's high with risk to 67.55 could see pop. Trendline on weekly possible bullish wedge.
FDX (Not a condition) but doji and on the 70 EMA-must hold today's low and clear 91.10
CLINE Condition 4, oversold, risk to today's lows must clear R1 20.22
SFLY Not a condition stock landed on the 50 DMA. Oversold must hold 29.15 and clear R1 29.88
Shorts: All have negative pivots, not oversold and should not clear R1.
FMCN Cannot clear today's high could see 20.00 next.
POT Cannot clear 46.17 and could see 43.75 or lower
APKT Cannot clear 26.97, under 24.88 could see 20.00
COG Cannot clear 31.48 with room to 27.80 next
Goodnight!