Finally, the FED did exactly what seemed fairly obvious which in turn scared off some longs in commodities, firming the TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries), which you know we have been looking at for the bottom for months now. We have been looking at short GLD as well which signaled today although there are still a couple of support areas to break. Bigger point is that if rates go higher, the classic relationship of higher gold, higher market should shift to higher market in certain sectors that benefit from such a scenario.
S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day and hold of the fast moving average although it does look like second time in 2 weeks giving warning about a possible top or at least a correction coming. Subs: Follow the way the range breaks seems most prudent
Dow (DIA) Similar to SPY without the inside day. At this point, conservative move is to wait for it to take out the recent highs with some volume behind it.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Still in nosebleed territory on the weekly relative strength, but that has not stopped AAPL. Subs: Positive Pivots
Russell 2000 (IWM) Held 83.00 and the fast moving average. Friendly to this index. Subs: Positive Pivots
ETFS:
GLD 158 is a huge area and if breaks, another leg lower in the cards. Subs: OR reversal failure preferable here
XLF (Financials) Has to clear 16.01 recent high and hold 15.50
IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared old high, made way for the new high
SMH (Semiconductors) Still needs to clear 36.17
XRT (Retail) Closed on the fast moving average. Subs: Provided 61.50 holds, back through 62.00 still ok
IYT (Transportation) My next favorite place to look for a buy opportunity. Subs Inside day. If holds today's lows wall look for long entry
IYR (Real Estate) 62.81 recent swing high to clear and 62.00 area to hold. Still
OIH (Oil Services) Held up well all things considered. Subs: Negative pivots so unless clears today's high, still looking a short opportunity
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gorgeous. If missed the boat, should hold 20.35 which means look for a dip to buy.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
COST ORLY ESRX MCD CELG IBM REGN and more-all since on list have been great swing trades.
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
None applicable
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
GOOG Negative pivots. Max risk the FTP 635.84. Should clear today's high
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means candidate for Opening Range Reversal, Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BIDU Inside day Risk 146.35 Should clear today's high
UA Must hold today's low, prefer OR reversal
HLF Hold 70.37 prefer it clear today's high
CF Risk today's low. Good on reversal or breakout
EOG Inside day, must hold today's low, OR reversal preferable
CLR Must hold 86.07 Good for reversal or breakout
FOSL Must hold 132. Good for reversal or breakout
LO Took out 132.20 and ran. Now look for a reversal and hold of the old high
ALXN Good stop to under today's low. Like weakness and strength
V Should hold 119.20 Good for reversal and needs to break 120.70 for new highs
TROW Inside day Risk 64.75 good on reversal or breakout
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
CLINE Condition 4, oversold, risk to today's lows must clear R1 20.84
MAKO Condition 4, not oversold but closed under FTP for 2 days and outperformed market. Should clear R1 42.44 hold today's low
SFLY Not a condition stock but in recovery phase. Oversold must hold 30.24 clear today's high
Shorts: All have negative pivots and should not clear R1. Watch GLD
MOS
SOHU 49.00 the 80 monthly is where this looks like its heading
SODA 27.60 last year low
COG Recent low 29.44 with room to 27.80 next
Goodnight!