Today reminds me of an anxious child (the market) anticipating some great big surprise (From the FED) and when it doesn't happen (No Policy Change), throwing a bit of a tantrum (The Selloff). But, does that child remember the tantrum the next day? Or do only the parents (Traders)?
SPY: A couple of good things-held the upward sloping moving average and 80 monthly and kept the island bottom intact. A couple of not so good things-3rd Distribution Day in volume and a failure at the 65 weekly moving average so far. Back through 125 encouraging, under today's low not so much.
QQQ: Not a pretty bear candle nor dive beneath the moving averages. But we look for 2 closes under the 50 DMA for confirmed phase change. That will be if cannot get back above 56.00. A break of 55.30 should bring in more sellers.
IWM: I consistently write and look to the midcaps which of course never came close to clearing the 200 DMA. 70.85 is the top price of that island bottom and a point to watch. Back over 73.78 and market could still surprise.
ETFs:
GLD Now oversold at the 200 DMA with a big spike in volume.
XRT (Retail) 51.00 the 200 DMA revisited.
SMH (Semiconductors) First to fill gap from 11/30. Would not dismiss a return over 30.00, but once an island bottom is negated, takes wind out of the sails therefore would not dismiss more downside with next support 28.50.
XLF (Financials) Damage done, but island bottom still in place. And back over 12.78 encouraging.
XLE (Energy) Trying hard to hold the 50 DMA but would not fight the trend if breaks today' low.
Longs: Definitely a day to watch the indexes and key ETFs
SNDK If the market hadn't fallen off, this had good potential. Has underlying support at the 50 DMA (48.50) which means if comes in lower will watch that area to hold. Otherwise, has PFTPs at 50.16 which if clears, will look again and can use a tighter risk to S1 49.23. Possible run to 53.46 2011 high and beyond to 60.00. Day to Short term Swing
EL Been getting hammered even when the market was trying to rally and now approaching oversold while it holds the 50 DMA. Caution however as would like to see it hold 107.20 today and yesterday's low. If that breaks or it opens beneath, then it should go right to the 50 DMA and would stand aside. Otherwise, it actually has PFTPs at108.56 which if that clears next hurdle is R1 109.91. Overall trend is still up with positive Bollinger Bands and overhead resistance at 119.00. Day to mini
BIIB 109.50-109.10 is max support and risk with neutral FTPs at 110.67. Its better resistance is at the 10 DMA 112.35 which if clears look good to perhaps the weekly BB overhead at 121.00. Day to Short-Term Swing
Honorable Mention:
OR Reversal PFTPs Must hold S1: INTU (52.83) RAX (S1 43.21) CVX (102.50)
Must Clear R1 : IBM (193.30)
4 or more days under the FTP and still holding key moving average: AGP (R1 54.56) COG (R1 76.72) X (Today's high 26.90)
Shorts: Many recent picks have delivered great returns. Looking for fresh ones.
TWC Must break S1 at 61.77 since PFTPs and not clear R1 63.20. Under S1 could see 57.00 and perhaps the 200 DMA at 48.00. Day to Short-term Swing
DRI Been climbing for the last several days after a gap lower on 12/06 in a bear phase. Also must break S1 at 43.07 since PFTPs and not clear R1 43.93. Then could see a drop to 40.00 then 38.50. Day to Short-Term Swing
CTSH Negative pivots at 67.33 with R1 68.23. Has room on the downside to 60.00 then 50.00. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: OR high Failure against R1 SYK (47.28) ANF (49.51) MCP (29.79)
