After yesterdays' selloff, even on the heels of today's rally, we can put the island bottom to bed. We can also put the oversold condition to bed. But, we do now have a return to an unconfirmed recovery phase in S & P 500 (SPY) and Midcaps (IWM). NASDQ (QQQ) does not. Retail (XRT) is the one ETF that is in a truly Bullish Phase. IYT (Transportation) and IYR (Real Estate) both look like they want to tackle the 200 DMA which would be a promising shift in the market. SMH (Semiconductors) look like the new wildcard with the possible bottoming formation, yet continuing bear phase. Most importantly, is that the indexes are in the middle yet approaching the upper end, of a nearly 3-month trading range. Continues to be a market of divergence which makes looking at sectors and groups individually the clearest strategy in the current mud pie.
Subs: SPY 123.35 the 50 DMA and pivotal.
QQQ: 56.20 the 200 DMA. 55.60 now support to hold.
IWM: 73.20 Friday and Monday highs, now support to watch for. Then 72.15 the 50 DMA. On upside, through 74.50 will watch for the 200 DMA.
ETFs:
GLD 157.45 the 200 DMA now resistance as it worked off the oversold condition. Subs-Under today's low 156.58 also breaks S1 and could set up as a new short.
XRT (Retail) 51.00 the 200 DMA, 51.90 the 50 DMA.
XLF (Financials) Neutral sloping 50 DMA at 12.86 which if clears is encouraging; otherwise, 12.21 next support, yesterday's low.
IYT (Transportation) 89.75 the 200 DMA. 85.60 must hold.
IYR (Real Estate) 57.30 the 200 DMA. 54.80 must hold.
Longs: I left Friday morning. At that point, the market was firming although ended the week down from the intraday high. Yesterday, many picks that looked good, sold off and unless you were using a major moving average as a stop (Ex: BA at the 200 DMA CELG the 10 DMA), you were stopped out. Today, the market gapped up yet many did not reach ½ ATR in profit and ended into resistance (exception-V-on new 52-week highs). Point is with the upcoming long holiday weekend, and given the current prices in the indexes, it is indeed a tough call. Most of the work I will be doing from here on is a "step back to look ahead" analysis for trends as we approach the New Year. Tonight's list looks at narrow range and inside days, a positive phase and not approaching overbought on the 2-Day RSI.
IACI (Narrow Range 6) Not a big ATR and in the middle of the recent range from12/07 to 12/04. But, back over the 50 DMA at 41.24 which matches today's low thereby a good risk point. PFTPS at 41.73. All time high put in last month at 43.89 which if clears could bring this to 46.00 next target. Day to Short-term Swing
GOOG (Narrow Range 66) interestingly stalled so close to recent highs and underperforming the market. But, if there is a stock that should run if the market holds here, it's this. We can look at the 10 DMA as pivotal (623.35). Has PFTPS at 630.25 and resistance at 632 then 636.50 with all time high 642.96. Would also like to see S1 hold or would be cautious. Day to Mini
JBHT Does have some room down to 43.00 the 50 DMA if breaks the 10 DMA at 44.05, but if that holds, with PFTPs at 44.87 and a good weekly chart, could see a move to 47.20 with all time high 49.12. Then more upside entirely possible. Day to Short-term swing
PNC Over 56.78 will clear the highest price it has been since July 21. It will also clear the 65-weekly moving average. Today it cleared the 200 DMA which now gives a clear risk using today's low 55.44 down to the 10 DMA 54.83. Then next hurdle is the 80 month moving average at 60.00. Day to Mini
Honorable Mention:
Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal Candidate: NBL BA UPS JNJ XOM
Shorts: Similarly to the comment on the long list, follow through has been tough. Many in a bear phase are coming in with positive pivots, but all picks did not clear prior day high which gives a clear risk.
ENDP (Narrow Range 17) Inside day and under the 200 DMA 35.35 a good risk. Pivots positive so must break today's low 34.51 which also takes out S1. Then could see 33.43 the 160 EMA then 32.30, the 50 DMA. Day to Short-term Swing
AMZN Inside day with positive pivots so must take out today's low and S1 or 180.63. Then could see another test of 170.25 with a possibility of a move eventually down to 125.00. Risk 183.17 yesterday and today's high. Day to Short-Term swing
VRTX Inside day Neutral Pivots at 33.69. Risk 34.45 today's high. Then could see the 10 DMA 30.80 or lower and possibly test of recent lows 26.50. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: TPX (inside day. Must break today's low 51.10 Risk 53.44) Ran to the 200 DMA and did not clear; plus must break S1 HLF (Narrowest Range 104 Days-52.86 risk) UA (Neutral Pivots, inside day, under today's low 72.15 breaks 200 DMA Risk 74.38)
Trading under the 50 DMA which is negatively sloped: VFC* (Negative Pivots Risk 131.78)
Goodnight!