The Market's a Wonderland!
Today, the wonder was in the Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries (TBT). Rates made new lows this week; turned around yesterday and then today, opened firm in the face of index weakness. Rates stayed firm the remainder of the day, with TBT closing up 2.66%. Subs: Watch for OR Reversal
SPY Slope on the 50 DMA is positive again in the now confirmed recovery phase. Oh that elusive 200 DMA. Will Santa bring it? Subs: PFTPs again, watch for OR reversal provided today's low holds
QQQ: Here's a wonder-the diversion in this index as it closed down 1.6%. Subs: Negative pivots which means watch R1 55.70 which also clears today's high.
IWM: In spite of negating the island bottom, impressive performance. Subs-trendline break over today's high which will take it most likely to the 200 DMA. Under 72.18, never mind.
ETFs:
GLD 157.45 the 200 DMA now resistance as it worked off the oversold condition. Subs-Negative pivots at 156.94. If this were not the end of the year, I would have held the short today. Will look to reenter unless it clears today's high
XRT (Retail) Subs: OR reversal today which was under S1 so dicey at the time. But, ended with an OR breakout. Still have big hopes for this sector
XLF (Financials) Positive sloping 50 DMA at 12.86 which if clears is way encouraging. PNC cleared the highest price it has been since July 21.
IYT (Transportation) 89.71 the 200 DMA. Super encouraging if clears since will be first time since end of July.
IYR (Real Estate) 57.30 the 200 DMA. Like IYT, if clears will be first time since beginning of August.
SMH (Semiconductors) Back over 30.60 would be wonderful. Under 29.20 not so much.
OIH (Oil Service) Good performance but hurdles remain. The 50 DMA is a big one.
Longs: Keeping mainly a day to miniswing frame of mind right now, but keep big eyes on the indexes-especially QQQ. It's possible to see a rally in the SPY and IWM, but without the QQQ, more of a flash in the pan.
X Almost an inside day except that it took out prior days high by a couple of ticks. Still under the 50 DMA which is sloped up and neutral FTPS with nowhere near overbought conditions. Wait now, for R1 25.42 which will also clear the 50 DMA. Risk to 24.95 for daytrade to mini seems reasonable. The big red candle from Monday is a bit disturbing, but if that clears, 26.03, would stick around. Day to Short-term Swing
UPS Was on the Honorable Mention list and managed a dull OR reversal. With FTPS at 72.40, still looks good especially if holds today's low, a great risk. Had a golden cross this week. 52-week high was 77.00 made in mid-February. Like to see it clear 12/07 high 73.66 first. Day to Short-term Swing
PRU Reminds me a bit of how PNC looked around Thanksgiving, only this has remained under the now upward sloping 50 DMA at 50.80. (Check out the weekly chart. The 65-weekly crossed the 200 weeks ago). PFTPs at 49.10 with good risk to under today's low 48.48. Then, could try to end the year around 52.40 or better. Day to Short-term Swing
NFLX Through the selloff, managed to hang onto the 80-monthly moving average. Even though it closed off the highs and down on the day, the pivots are positive at 71.19 and the risk to today's low70.19 good and cheap. Depending upon how it opens, will look for an entry and run possibly to 77.59 first, then we can see if 86.50 is possible. Day to Miniswing
Honorable Mention:
Positive Pivots Opening Range Reversal Candidate: IACI* PNC JNJ
Must clear R1: JBHT (45.17) GOOG* (632.11) RRC* (63.12)
Shorts: A fine example of perfect timing of the OR low, previous day low and S1 lined up for a short-AMZN.
DKS (Narrow Range 11) Provided it does not clear 36.90 has negative pivots at 36.52 and also needs to break today's low to see lower prices. Next support at 30.75 then 26.50. Day to Short-term Swing
MGA (Narrow Range 20) 32.90 point it cannot clear and negative pivots at 32.11. Some support at 30.00 then 25.00. Day to Short-term Swing
WTW (NR 4) 57.70 point it cannot clear and negative pivots at 57.08. Support at 55.00 then 51.50. Major underlying support down at 40.00 so anything can happen. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: HLF VRTX TPX VFC RL (must break the 200 DMA)
Goodnight!