Holiday Schedule- On 12/28, I will not do a midday video and the level of my participation in the market thereafter will depend on market condition. I will start on twitter and take it from there. The Evening Watch again will be abbreviated. On Thursday 12/29, we will have our Live Coaching Session at 12:30 PM EST. (Recorded as well). That will be the perfect time to take notes on what we see for upcoming trends using our top down approach. Then, over the New Year's weekend, you will receive a full Evening Watch to prepare us for the exciting start of 2012.
SPY: rallied 5 days in a row drawn to the 200 DMA on light volume. Needs to stay there are approaching overbought on 2-Day RSI. Got a second close to confirm an accumulation phase.
QQQ: Tried but could close above the 200 DMA 56.16. It is not overbought, therefore still a good indicator. 55.35 underlying support.
IWM: After a doji day, closed above the trendline that descends from October 27th high and connects the highs from 12/05-12/22. The 200 DMA at 76.30. Otherwise, under today's low, could see 73.00.
ETFs:
GLD Gapped lower and never filled the gap from Friday's low. Still short and beginning to see some distance between current price and the 200 DMA. 151.71 recent low. 149.50 short-term target.
XRT (Retail) Top of the range. Like to see this either blast through 54.00 or would not discount another drop closer to 50.00.
XLF (Financials) 12.88 now an area to watch. 13.50 resistance. Subs-under 13.02 breaks Friday's low and S1.
IYT (Transportation) 90.55 high 12/05. Also needs to clear with some oomph or we can view the past 5 days up as a run to the top of the recent trading range since August.
IYR (Real Estate) Could not clear the October 27th high closing just shy of the 200 DMA and now overbought. 55.00 to hold and 58.20 important to clear.
IBB (Biotechnology) Overbought on the 2-Day RSI as it touched the top of a channel.
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed right on the 50 DMA eking out a confirmed phase change.
OIH* (Oil Service) Now 2 tops with today's high and 116.44 last week's high. That area has to clear or could see a drop to 113, now support.
Long Picks: Some picks did really well especially in contrast to the market. CBST WSM RAX GOOG UA in particular. Issue is the lack of interest and low volume as we approach the New Year. Tonight more of a review. Still have tails on some long positions, but most likely will end the year in cash.
CBST Bullish Engulfing Pattern. Hard to buy breakouts so with Positive Pivots; keep this one on watch for an OR Reversal. Day to Mini.
X Hammer candle so watch for a move over today's high and if breaks the low, see a drop to 25.50. Positive pivots. Day to Mini
INTU The 50 DMA which is max risk at 52.72. Must clear 53.45 R1 and Friday high 53.48 since pivots negative to see 55.43 recent high and beyond. Day to Mini
WSM All time high was made in early May at 45.48. Those were levels not seen since 2005. Positive pivots at 37.85 with good risk to the 200 DMA 37.04. Through R1 38.23, could see 41.50 next. Would consider hanging onto to this if we close out the year over 40.00. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: NBL (OR Reversal only) JWN (Positive Pivots OR Reversal Candidate-could see 52.00 this week.) RAX (Positive Pivots OR Reversal candidate- might have fuel to 46.50)
Shorts:
APA Filled gap now has negative pivots. Should not clear 91.47. Support at 89.65, but then better support at 87.40. Day to Mini
SLB (Narrow Range 201) Gap from12/13 not filled. Over 69.32 no short, but a break of 68.32 and will look vulnerable. Day to Mini
VGK Cannot clear 41.44 with inside day. If breaks 41.15 could see drop again to 38.40 and lower-this is the Europe ETF. Ultrashort options: EFU (2x) On the 200 DMA 25.75 max risk. Must clear 26.32.
Honorable Mention: PAY (Must not clear 36.47) AMZN* (Narrow Range 126) Inside day, 178.59 point not to clear-see 170 and lower possible PANL (NR 13) Should not clear 35.25)
Goodnight!