The NASDAQ did indeed manage to end last week at the top of the weekly bar in spite of naysayers andGoogle. It even spent most of Friday in consolidation thereby working off overbought conditions. A casual observation about mankind and trading-we humans wrap our minds around bad news way more readily than we do good news. What's up with that? We are wired to fail. We can deal with that. Success-well, to us mortals-that's ephemeral.
With that said, there remains an inordinate amount of divergence in the market concerning individual stocks. Many look amazing while others have gotten badly beaten up. Subs-Interesting to note: As I was researching picks, I found a lot more setups with good risk and clear targets on the short side than on the long side. Often that could signal a correction is coming or at the very least, the market is getting tired.
S &P 500 (SPY) Orderly move up, nothing too crazy. 4 Accumulation days now heading into the week. If there is a dip, do not anticipate it lower than 129.50 or so without it spelling trouble.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Tight range with room to the high of the week ending August 5th at 81.00. 2 possible scenarios developing. One is that we have another possible leg up. The other, a reversal and failure from here, although see no typical indication yet of that from a technical standpoint.
NASDAQ (QQQ) Who wants to argue with a new weekly all time high close? And especially after theGOOG report. We still have AAPL to deal with of course. But, again, anything is possible, although it does seem awfully tight right now unless it gaps under 59.50 and keeps dumping. Then I would venture to say time for longs to regroup.
ETFs:
GLD Took out those tops, but it seems more in sympathy to silver (SLV) which was the place to be last Friday. The closing price in GLD shifts the momentum and back looking at the gap fill should it clear 163.19.
XRT (Retail) Took a good inside day breath after last Thursday's run. Subs-53.70 is a good place to find support if this group is to remain firm.
XLF (Financials) 14.17 the October 27th high, Friday high 14.15. Major significance when that happens is if a bizarre gap lower back under the 200 DMA happens. That is a sign of reckoning. Otherwise, focus more on the change of phase to accumulation.
IYR (Real Estate) Resistance still resides at 60.00 although it seems determined to get there. In overbought territory which makes the resistance area noteworthy.
IBB (Biotechnology) Still digesting the recent move to new highs. Subs-2 days now under the FTP.
SMH (Semiconductors) Target reached on weekly Bollinger band but unless it breaks and closes under 32.75, still very positive.
IYT (Transportation) Good inside day pause after a gap higher last Thursday provided the gap holds.
XLE (Energy) Big eyes on 71.98 January 10th high. Subs-Went home long on the Opening Range Reversal against the 200 DMA.
TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Most recent high on 12/23 at 19.31 although this time the instrument closed above the 50 DMA. Subs-in balance for swing with stop now around 18.83.
UUP (US Dollar Bull) Subs-Took a breath and ended last week with an inside day against the 50 DMA giving this a good line in the sand at 22.30. This is not a daytrader, but with positive pivots, could be a setup for a new swing long.
Longs: New and old subscribers-you have now seen what a sustained rally and happy home for swing traders look like. Not all trades have worked out for the long haul. But most important is you are getting to see how the rules of engagement work in the world according to Marketgauge. Watch Earnings!!
JOY (Narrow Range 13) positive pivots at 85.47 and risk for miniswing under the 200 DMA and Friday's low 84.90. Like to see it clear 86.17 now for the next leg up with resistance at 93.00 next. Day to Swing
LULU After the recent gap higher, it could not match all time high made several months ago, but is holding up above 58.50, which gives this a clear maximum risk. Has 4 days under the pivots so first must get back over 59.90 then R1 60.57. Looking for not only a test of the recent high 62.68, but a run to all time high 64.49 and beyond. Day to Swing
VFC Inside day. Positive pivots. Swing traders should still be long from last week with stop under 130.60. New entries look for an OR reversal since stock is thin. Otherwise, now has to clear 134.50 and then could see 142-143. Day to Short-term Swing
Honorable Mention: OR Reversal Candidates: SINA* JPM* SPG PXP
Shorts:
Note: We have been watching stocks that make a new 60-day high and close on the lows of that day. 2 examples: A (and) EW. Both are beneath the 65-weekly moving average but above the 200 DMA and worth tracking as shorts if fail the 200 DMA.
INFY Positive pivots so must break S1 51.69. Risk 52.73. Could see 48.75 level next if not lower. Day to Swing
RRC Negative Pivots 54.06. Risk 54.85. Next support at the 200 weekly moving average 49.50 Day to Swing
PANL Slightly positive pivots so must now break 39.50 last week's low. Some support at 37.00. Once that breaks, could see 34.00 or lower. Day to Swing
TIF Inside day and negative pivots 62.18 with risk 63.24. Should also break S1 61.18 to continue the downtrend. Day to Swing
DDS Negative Pivots at 46.44 and risk 47.33. If it can break 45.50, could see much lower. Day to Swing
DECK Must break 83.00 last week's low since pivots positive and not clear 86.00. Still looks heavy.Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: ANF (Goes to show you what happens if you look away-had this on the list then it dropped 5.49% Friday. OR high failure candidate.) CCL (Inside day-must break Friday low)
Have a great Sunday!