Tomorrow the boys are back in town. The FED boys that is. Volatility has come in at an important inflection point in NASDAQ (QQQ). Today, the Russells (IWM) made a new 60-day high and closed in the red. Iran is back in the news and the Greeks continue talks. What a great time to be a stock trader!
S &P 500 (SPY) 3 higher closing prices in a row and many who think the engine is sputtering. Maybe-but why predict? The market will tell you.
Russells 2000 (IWM) Could not get to 81.00, the high price of the first week of August-the one thatSPY and QQQ cleared what seems like forever ago. It did, as I mentioned, make a new 60 day high and closed slightly down on the day. This will be significant only if it gets more follow through to the downside from here. Subs-only one with negative pivots at 78.18.
NASDQ (QQQ) DOJI candle after another new high intraday. This is what I mean by an inflection point-doesn't get any more dramatic or fun than this.
ETFs:
GLD Cleared 163.19 intraday, December 13th high, and closed just beneath. At this point, still a gap left from 12/08 that with very little volume could be a reachable or elusive target . Time will tell.
XRT (Retail) still catching its breath at an impressive price point.
XLF (Financials) Other than approaching overbought, the penetration of the October high today and the new and improved accumulation phase are 2 inarguable facts.
IYR (Real Estate) Got real close to the resistance at 60.00. In overbought territory which makes the resistance area still noteworthy.
IBB (Biotechnology) The first sector to tell us that the market was strong. Now the first sector to waffle after making new highs. Correction or failure? The 10 DMA and today's low important to hold. Subs-3 days now under the FTP.
SMH (Semiconductors) -Target reached on weekly Bollinger band and with a DOJI day, hanging tough unless it breaks and closes under 32.50.
IYT (Transportation) Gap did not hold after last Friday's inside day. Worth watching for more exhaustion unless if holds here.
XLE (Energy) Matched and exceeded 71.98 the January 10th high and closed just shy of that number.Subs-Still long with eyes on today's low to hold.
TBT (Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Took profit today with 4 ATRs (4 times the average true range and will sit this out now until the FED is done.
UUP (US Dollar Bull) Subs-With gap lower, now want to see either consolidation or a gap over the 50 DMA before a new long position.
Longs:
FCX Caught the move up and exited before earnings. Since, has been consolidating under the 200 DMA with an inside day and positive pivots at 43.74. The 200 DMA is above at 44.49 which means will need 2 closes above to confirm a phase change. For now, could consider if sets up before then and holds conservatively today's low otherwise, 42.20. Still has a gap from September to 46.30 to fill. Then, could see 48.60 and possible beyond. Day to Short-term Swing
NTAP (Keith Pick) 2 inside days after a big green candle and holding above the 50 DMA with positive pivots at 37.15. Tight risk to 36.60 and if gets going, could see 42.25 and perhaps 45.00. Day to Swing
AVGO Gapped higher and cleared the 200 DMA last week then been consolidating with 3 days under the FTP now at 33.61. Good risk the 200 DMA or around 32.78. Would consider ½ over the FTP and the other ½ over R1 at 33.95. Then could see 37-38 target. Day to Swing
MOS Over the 80 monthly moving average and with positive pivots and not overbought, still a contender. Would not risk more than to today's low 54.50. If can clear today's high, could see 60-62.00 next. Day to Swing
REGN Not as clean as LULU was today, but consolidating after huge gains with max risk the 10 DMA 76.70. Pivots positive at 78.85 so a reversal would make risk easier on this stock with a 3.3 ATR. Last week made new all time high at 80.78 and is not yet overbought. Uncharted territory beyond. Day to Mini
Honorable Mention: Must clear R1 PPG (2 Inside days R1 88.88) APD (91.03 Risk 89.60) HLF (R1 57.75 Risk 55.50) Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: LULU* PXP* JOY RHT* ROK (Risk 79.80)
Shorts: With today's strength in the market, lots of bearish stocks have pivots that are positive and need to setup anew.
GS Has positive pivots so must break under S1 106.79 but on list since it made a new 60 day high and then closed near the low of the day which could signal a reversal and short but only if it weakens from here. Then, if breaks S1 the risk would be the positive pivots at 108.85 area. Has room to correct to the 50 DMA at 96.00 a reasonable target. Day to Mini
DDS Negative Pivots at 46.06 and risk 46.95. If it can break 45.40, could see much lower. Day to Swing
Honorable Mention: OR High Failure DECK
Goodnight!