More digestion near the top of the recent trading range with an accumulation day in volume in S&P 500although still under the daily average. Same with NASDQ only that has managed to maintain the breakaway gap from Tuesday. Both indexes are close to but not quite yet overbought on the 2-Day RSI.Midcaps (IWM) staring down the 200 DMA after today's bullish looking candle. Interesting price point since it is closest to the top of its recent range which never did actually clear that 200 DMA. This could mean that we see a run in midcaps (earnings season is upon us) which will bode well for the market in the near term.
SPY: Subs-Positive pivots in all indexes. 129.42 The October 28th high. Must continue to hold 126.40 area
QQQ: Subs-Still holding long position and now, like to see 57.00 hold.
IWM: A bull candle after a doji and room to run to 76.15 the 200 DMA unless it breaks 73.35 area.
ETFs:
GLD Could be bottoming for sure; but could just as easily be returning to overhead resistance at the 200 DMA as it approaches overbought. Subs-That would give us a great opportunity to look for a rollover with a really tight risk.
XRT (Retail) Subs-Negative Pivots now at 52.25 which corresponds perfectly with the 50 DMA, which would like to see hold. Then over today's high would not be surprised to see more upside.
XLF (Financials) Closed right on the 160 EMA after a real look of leadership. Not overbought so could see 13.80 next. But has to hold 13.38.
IYT (Transportation) Hard to tell if this lagged or is just paused and getting ready to rocket as it is one that is not close to overbought right here above the 200 DMA. Subs-Negative pivots therefore must clear R1 90.85.
IYR (Real Estate) Even with today's rally, still technically a failure from the 200 DMA for now.
IBB (Biotechnology) Now you know why we wait 2 days before we claim failure, breakout, phase change, etc. Subs-made money in BIIB today as per instructions to buy biotechs over Wednesday high.
SMH (Semiconductors) Tuesday high 31.32. Today's high 31.28. Now approaching overbought although it did give us a one day unconfirmed phase change to Accumulation.
OIH (Oil Service) Filled the gap from a couple of days ago and held. Also worked off overbought conditions and closed above last week's highs. Clearly vulnerable, but would not rule out a rally over 118.45.
Longs: This week we saw all timeframes in play-day, mini and the start of swing trading. But, let's not forget that we are still in a trading range in the market which means money management a key component as these betwixt and between phases have yielded volatility. Therefore, I am continuing to recommend taking profits on rallies, leaving tails and trailing stops.
EL good risk to 111.90. It also has 4 days under the FTPs. Doji day which means paused at an interesting price point. Unless this gaps lower, still very much of interest with potential on weekly chart to 120, so watching how it opens and setups. Day to Short-term Swing
CVX 2 days under the FTP at 108.87 and must hold today' low 107.97. If it can close the week over 109.66 (highest closing price on a weekly basis), and clear 110 then120.00 reasonable before it gets way overbought. Day to Short-term Swing
CPX A Doji day and 2 days under the FTP at 34.56 with max risk the 50 DMA 33.64. A bullish phase so can look to buy 1/2 over the FTP and ½ over R1 at 35.26 with potential to 36.41 recent high and beyond (40.00) reasonable. Day to Short-term Swing
BA 2 days under the FTP at 73.38. Today's low good risk. R1 at 74.02 which if clears could see 76.20 easily and with a close near there, possible move to 79.50 next. Day to Short-term Swing.
Honorable Mention: Must Clear High or R1: UPS (73.69) JNJ (65.72) EXPE (29.04) Positive Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: ONXX C SNDK* (Must also clear the 50 DMA)
Shorts:
WYNN negative pivots at 110.54 and not oversold. Should not clear 111.76. Still see potential downside first to the recent low around 101. Day to Short-term Swing
OPEN 2 inside days and under the 50 DMA with negative pivots at 38.97 and should not clear R1 39.64. Next support 35.15 then recent lows 31.54. Day to Short-term Swing
XEC Negative pivots at 62.60 and must not break 63.70. The 200 weekly moving average is 60.00 and a close beneath would be first time since 11/25. Then could see November low 50.80. Day to Short-term Swing
DO Negative Pivots 55.45 and should not clear 55.86. Recent low 53.00 and in October, 50.41. Day to Short Term Swing
Honorable Mention: GMCR (Short for swing with risk now 45.46)
Goodnight!
