SPY did exactly what we expected it to do after holding the 50 day moving average and the channel bottom I've been showing you on the videos. Came in above the FTP then broke out on a 30 minute opening range and proceeded to rally the rest of the day with no pain. Plus, it even stopped perfectly at the adaptive moving average at 134.52. Ordinarily, I would be jumping up and down for joy for having predicted this move and sharing it with you last night. Except for one thing-no volume. Therefore, keeping with the analysis based on the required accumulation day in volume still absent from the equation, at this point I am taking this rally more as a mini swing opportunity rather than a prediction of a possible third and final bottom over the last three months and onward to new highs. Now that doesn't mean it won't happen. But, at this point, until we see an accumulation day in volume, I cannot be an aggressive buyer of anything.
QQQ has a little bit more room to its adaptive moving average of 58.37. If it opens higher tomorrow and cannot get through there, I would be inclined to look at a couple of shorts I am recommending for tomorrow. Otherwise, same thing as SPY-needs volume.
IWM came back through the 50 day moving average, again predictable considering that I wrote about the slope on that 50 day moving average pointing up making the warning phase weak. Yet, no badly needed volume to make up for the string of distribution days we've had to this point.
ETF's: FXE after the bullish engulfing pattern yesterday, this did close higher but could not get up to the 50 day moving average at 142.55. Until it clears that number, we could see the dollar strengthen up a bit which certainly will put some pressure on the overall market.
FXI was the beautiful exception to the volume quandary. On strong volume, it gapped higher above the 200 day moving average and proceeded to rally closing on the highs of the day. The 50 day moving average is still overhead at 44.37 so at this point, a good target to lighten up at if bought today.
SMH also had a strong day getting back through the adaptive moving average and taking out the 30 minute opening range high. Since that never failed the 50 day moving average, today was a day to reenter with a stop under today's low for a mini swing at 35.81. Still waiting for a new high close above 36.75.
USO bounced off of the 200 day moving average then retreated from the adaptive moving average at 40.05. That will be another one to watch to see if it holds up today's low 38.97, consolidates some and gets ready to continue its move up above the adaptive moving average or fails today's low and needs to do more work with the next support at 38.60.
GLD** after the gap open, closed with a DOJI day which isn't surprising considering the noncommittal stance by the Federal Reserve today and the waffling dollar. Since this is still in a bullish phase, we can use today's low 145.14 as support, 145.55 as pivotal, and an indication that if we get through today's high 146.22 we will take a run for the the adaptive moving average overhead at 148.04. Otherwise, a break of today's low and I would anticipate that we will indeed test the 50 day moving average now at 143.11.
SLV in this for a mini swing trade although I lightened up to decrease overnight exposure. Never got .5 ATR. Now, above today's high 34.69 anticipate a move up to the adaptive moving average at 36.69. Otherwise, will watch the first 30 minutes opening range in conjunction with today's low 33.68 for a stop loss if it comes in lower.
Of the ultra-shorts, FAZ is still in a recovery phase with the 50 day moving average at 40.99. Something else to watch for is now with two days under the FTP, which comes in tomorrow at 42.19, if it crosses above, especially after holding the 50 day moving average, could be a warning sign.
Picks: Today, a lot of the stocks we have been watching do not have short-term trading patterns therefore, unclear risks. Tonight's picks are based on two criteria: inside day and setup for a long or underperformers set up for short.
IBM this did have an opening range reversal today and wound up with an inside day. The 10 day moving average comes in at 169.83 and today's low was 169.46 making the near term risk manageable for a mini swing a day trade only. The stack on the pivots will be positive with the FTP at 170.35. Depending on how it opens tomorrow, would look to either buy a dip against today's low or against the FTP. Otherwise, above R1 at 171.25 since that corresponds perfectly with today's high 171.19. Day to mini
EQIX stopped just shy of the 10 day moving average at 100.16. Tomorrow, that corresponds perfectly with R1 at 100.21. Another one I would look to buy on strength with either a risk to under today's low 98.88 or tomorrow's FTP which comes in at 99.50. Since this is also far away from the slower moving averages, recommending this only for a day or mini swing.
GOOG this was a perfect opening range reversal buy against the FTP this morning. Today it had an inside day which is typical after either a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern the day prior. Since in this case it was a bullish engulfing pattern, would anticipate the rally continuing if it gets through today's high which corresponds with R1 at 531.50. A couple choices of risk. One would be under today's low at 525.70, another would be at the afternoon intraday low which corresponds with S1 at 526.87, or tomorrow's FTP at 528.60 which corresponds with the last 30 minutes low today. Still has overhead resistance at the 10 day moving average at 532.86 but the much better resistance is up at recent highs 545.70. As pointed out in today's video, there is a death cross that happened on May 10, therefore we are still looking at this more for a mini swing trade or good day trade.
WTW**had an inside day today and is holding the 10 day moving average at 79.71. Made new all time highs last week at 83.60. The upper Bollinger band on the weekly chart shows a projected target of 92.50. That means that although this is quite extended on the upside, we could see a decent mini to swing trade from here. Tomorrow, S1 coincides well with today's low 80.55 coming in at 80.58 which would be a reasonable risk or place to buy against if it holds on an opening range reversal. The FTP comes in at 81.59 a good pivotal point and R1 corresponds with today's high 82.59 coming in at 82.62. Therefore, either buy an opening range reversal against support or an opening range breakout over today's high and R1. Day to swing
FMX*this is a low volume trader with 650 K. average daily volume. Had two inside days in a row after a bullish engulfing pattern on May 16 and is trading above the 10 day moving average which comes in at 62.12. Has a trendline that comes down from the all-time high made on April 27 at 64.01 which breaks out tomorrow over 62.80 which also corresponds with R1 62.73. Therefore, can look to buy a dip or an opening range reversal or a move above the trend line. Day to swing
NUE here's a "buy on weakness" pick. Held the 200 day moving average for two days and had an inside day today. The risk would be no more than under yesterday's low at 42.13. The FTP is right above unchanged at 42.73 and the one day pivot low is at 42.64. Today's high is 43.05 and R1 comes in at 43.24. Therefore, would either look to buy against the floor trader pivot which lines up well also with the 200 day moving average, or above today's high especially if it corresponds with an opening range breakout and R1. Another interesting point is the 50 weekly moving average at 42.21. These are the patterns that I look for-convergence of key daily moving averages, key weekly moving averages and recent lows. For a mini swing trade first overhead resistance is at the 10 day moving average at 43.89. Those who want to swing trade because of the tight risk, will be looking for a rally up to the 50 day moving average at 45.64. Day to swing.
AMX is another one looking at a possible buy on weakness. After making new multi year highs several weeks ago, it has dropped and stopped at the 200 weekly moving average of 49.07. Today it had an inside day closing above the FTP which it had been trading beneath for five days in a row. First I'd like to see it holds S1 49.69. Then I would like to see it take out today's high which again corresponds perfectly with R1 at 50.27. The 10 day moving average is overhead resistance at 51.27 but this also has potential to move up to 53.10. Folks who like to swing trade against strong weekly moving average lows, could possibly see a move back up to the 50 and 200 day moving averages which come in around 55. Day to swing
Hon. mention: MOS on the daily it looks like a short. But on the weekly, we have now held the 200 weekly at 66.58 for the last couple of weeks and the 50 weekly moving average just crossed the 200 weekly moving average. That means last week's low 66.05 is a good stop for a swing trade should this get any kind of bounce. There is overhead resistance at the 200 moving average at 70.80 then again at the 70 exponential moving average is 72.45 and better still up above at the 50 day moving average at 75.
Shorts
BIDU this underperformed the market and failed to rally or close above the 70 day exponential moving average at 132.85. If this cannot clear today's high 133.71 and fails R1 at 133.25 that's your first area to sell against. If it comes in beneath the FTP at 132.29 also a good area to sell against. And a break of S1 130.87 is below today's low, a third area to sell against. Yesterday's low was 124.66 a good first target. Better support at the 160 day exponential moving average at 118.55. If this comes in above today's high, and I would not be looking to sell as we could see a rally up to the 50 day moving average at 137.50. Day to mini
MCP since its big decline, today it stopped just short of the 70 day exponential moving average of 59.99 with today's hi 59.94. If it cannot clear 59.50 on the open and fails the FTP at 58.79 could see more selling coming in with some support at 51.50 and better support at the 160 day exponential moving average of 49.02. Day to mini
Reminder-Taking the day off Friday-you will have an Evening Watch but no Tweets.