April 27, 2026
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Natural gas looks cheap, with its ratio to oil near a 20-year low.
A level we haven’t seen since the early shale expansion era.
But cheap doesn’t mean bottomed.
Right now, supply remains abundant in the U.S., with production and storage still elevated. That oversupply continues to weigh on price.
And that’s the key point:
Markets don’t bottom on value alone.
They bottom when the economics force change.
At some point, prices get too low for producers to justify output.
When that happens, production slows, supply tightens and that’s when real bottoms begin to form.
Until then, the process can take time.
What Would Change the Picture
If prices continue lower without a meaningful slowdown in production, the bottoming process likely extends.
But if we begin to see:
That’s when conditions shift.
Also watch the broader energy complex.
If oil remains firm while natural gas stays weak, that divergence itself becomes a signal suggesting different demand and supply dynamics across energy markets.
Those relationships matter.
We are not buying cheap.
We are looking for a tradeable bottom:
Because:
➡ The bottom comes when producers feel the pain
➡ But the trade comes when price confirms the turn
Bottom Line
Natural gas is undervalued but still searching for a floor.
Heads up:
We’ll be taking a short vacation and will return with more great insights on May 10th. Until then, trade and be well.
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04-26-25 Business First AM Mish loves Semis if, the rest of the Family hang in there
Coming Up:
Vacation Until May 10th
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) New all-time high with 707 support
Russell 2000 (IWM) Consolidating near all time high but not through it
Dow (DIA) 489 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) Following Tech lead with lots of earnings on tap
Regional banks (KRE) 68 support
Semiconductors (SMH) 473 key support
Transportation (IYT) 80 now support
Biotechnology (IBB) Caution phase-174 now resistance to clear
Retail (XRT) 84-85 now key to hold
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) If holds over 74k see 88k next
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